Via Marc Ambinder, this graph is not, shall we say, good news for the Republican party's long-term prospects.
Sure, some of these young voters will likely drift to the right in years to come, but most people tend to fix their party identification early and hold on to it doggedly. And of course young voters today aren't spooked by the legacy of the 1970s the way their parents' generation is. Equally, to the extent (possibly exaggerated) that Iraq will have a lasting, quasi-seismic impact on American politics it seems, right now, likely to damage the Republican party more than the Democrats. That said, I suspect that it's the GOP's domestic failures that will prove just as telling in the medium to long term. Which is another way of saying that I'm very much looking forward to reading Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam's new book, Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream.