What can save China from Covid?

It is tempting to believe that we have gone from one crisis to another: Russia invaded Ukraine hours after Covid restrictions were lifted in England. Tempting, but wrong. Covid is now manageable because of high levels of immunity from vaccines and prior infection (just look at how our high case rate isn’t leading to calls for the reintroduction of restrictions). But it remains problematic in less highly vaccinated countries, particularly those pursuing a zero-Covid strategy.

The most dramatic example is China. There are approximately 15 million unvaccinated over-eighties in the country (Beijing prioritised immunisation by profession rather than age). Even those who have been jabbed haven’t been given Pfizer or Moderna, two of the most effective vaccines, as they haven’t been approved in mainland China. Worse still, the previous clampdowns mean there is very little natural immunity in the population.

Hong Kong serves as a forewarning for what might be about to happen in China. Its death rate is currently more than double that of Britain at the peak of the second wave, with a daily death rate of 38 per million (the UK’s seven-day rolling average is 1.52 per million).

The Chinese authorities are clearly worried about what might be coming down the track. Shenzhen, the tech manufacturing hub neighbouring Hong Kong, has been put into lockdown for a week, with residents only allowed out for three rounds of testing. But China’s Covid problem is worse than a spill-over of cases from Hong Kong: Jilin – which is further from Hong Kong than London is from Tunis – has also been placed under severe restrictions. No one can leave the province without police permission.

Veterans of the UK’s Covid struggles believe the current strains of the virus are so transmissible that even the most draconian lockdowns won’t contain it.