Day two of manifesto week will see the Conservatives launch their prospectus for government. At a chunky 77 pages, the document aims to set out what the Tories intend to do if given another five years. Rishi Sunak’s party has already announced a slew of policies in the campaign (from mandatory national service to more help for pensioners). However, there will still be new ideas, with a focus on the economy through tax and welfare. Below is a run-down of what we can expect from this morning’s announcement in the East Midlands.
Taxation
The centrepiece of the manifesto is likely to be a 2p cut to national insurance, taking the employee rate to six pence in the pound. Like Labour, the Tories have ruled out any increase to the rate of income tax, National Insurance or VAT. However, Sunak’s party will not promise to cut or abolish inheritance tax, to the disappointment of many.
Immigration
On legal migration, the Tory manifesto will commit to introducing an annual cap on work and family visas issued each year. Sunak will pledge that this cap will be lowered in each of the next five years if he wins on 4 July. On illegal migration, the manifesto will reaffirm the Prime Minister’s commitment to the Rwanda scheme and set out plans to replicate the scheme with other countries once it is up and running.
ECHR membership
The manifesto is expected to commit to reforming Britain’s membership of the European Court of Human Rights and keep ‘all options on the table’ if that fails. However, it is not expected to commit to a firm time frame for achieving reform.
NHS and health
The Conservatives aim to increase the NHS workforce with an extra £2.4 billion to fund a 27 per cent expansion in training places for new doctors and nurses by the end of the next parliament. If re-elected, the party will build 100 new GP surgeries in England and boost the number of available appointments by allowing more treatments in the community. Sunak’s party also wants to overhaul the Equality Act so that sex is defined only as someone’s biological sex.
Social care
Rishi Sunak is expected to go ahead with Boris Johnson’s delayed 2019 social care reform too by capping the lifetime amount people have to pay for care at £86,000, with the state picking up costs beyond this. Under a more generous means test, people with assets below £100,000 would get help before the cap, while those with less than £20,000 pay nothing.
Housing
There will be a £1 billion scheme for first-time buyers to access government-backed mortgages with just a five per cent deposit. The plan is modelled on the Help to Buy scheme which closed last year and could be used for all home purchases of less than £400,000. Sunak is also expected to announce that the Tories will permanently abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers purchasing a property for up to £425,000. Other likely measures include a two-year scheme to scrap capital gains tax for landlords who sell their property to tenants to try and free up housing stock. The manifesto will also include a promise to change planning rules to boost inner city home-building.
Defence
Sunak has already announced plans to increase UK spending on defence to 2.5 per cent of GDP a year by 2030 at a cost of £6 billion a year. This is expected to be paid for through cuts to the Ministry of Defence headcount in Whitehall and a greater share of government research spending. The manifesto will also flesh out Sunak’s plan for national service for 18 year-olds.
Pensions
The ‘quadruple lock’ plan for pensions will automatically raise the threshold at which retirees start paying income tax each year so that it stays ahead of the state pension.
Benefits
Sunak’s pre-election announcements include making more people with mental health and mobility problems look for work and removing benefits entirely from those who refuse to take jobs after a year. He is also promising to reform sick notes by taking responsibility away from GPs and giving it to a new occupational health service, while giving more support to the long-term sick. The threshold at which families pay the Child Benefit Tax Charge will rise too from £60,000 to £120,000.
Crime
An increase in visa fees will raise £818 million to pay for an 8,000 additional police officers over the next three years. New powers for neighbourhood police officers will help them seize knives and recover stolen goods. The Tories will also look at increasing sentences for the most serious offences — and introducing new penalties for so-called low-level crime. The manifesto will promise to increase the minimum sentence for murders that take place in the home from 15 to 25 years. The party will also consider introducing an American-style system of first and second-degree murder.
Education
Likely to feature prominently is Sunak’s plan for a ‘knowledge-rich’ Advanced British Standard, formed by merging academic A-levels and technical T-levels. A further 100,000 apprenticeships will be created thanks to a crackdown on ‘rip-off degrees’ where graduates earn less on average than they would if they had not gone to university. The Tories will also recommit to its plans to give 30 free hours of childcare to all pre-school children over the age of nine months. The manifesto will likely include plans for a teacher recruitment drive too.
Energy
The Conservatives have pledged to retain the energy price cap in every year of the next parliament. It will expect to pledge to make price comparison websites easier to use and examine whether regulator Ofgem should publish league tables showing how long energy firms take to respond to customer complaints.
Local government
In an expansion of levelling-up, a further 30 towns across the UK will be given £20m each in a policy dubbed ‘cash for towns.’ The Conservatives will also promise to introduce new legislation to reverse Ulez and limit the use of 20mph routes in Wales.
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