Daniel Korski

What didn’t happen in 2011

In the run-up to every New Year, newspapers and the blogosphere are full of articles about what happened in the year just gone. 2011 was a particularly eventful year so there will be much to pick from. But what about the things that did not happen, though they were widely expected? Here are five things that did not take place — though, as the year unfolded, many people would have bet on their occurrence:

1) Algeria’s revolution. As one North African dictator after another fell to pro-democracy protesters, everyone expected Algeria to be next. But it wasn’t. there are many reasons for this, as Hakeem Debouche and Susi Denison argue in this new report; including the country’s oil wealth, people’s fear of a civil war, and that fact that the Algerian regime is less repressive than those in Tunisia and Egypt.

2) Outright failure in Durban. After the collapse of the Copenhagen climate negotiations, everyone expected any future talks to fail in the same way, with countries disagreeing about how to address climate change. But the 17th meeting since the 1992 talks in Rio de Janeiro actually ended with some sort of agreement. You can argue about how significant it all is, but, on paper at least, there are commitments to draw up a legal framework for climate action by 2015, as well as measures such as a new Green Climate Fund.

3) The orderly return of President Putin. A year ago, most observers expected the Russian prime minster to prepare the ground for a third presidential term by emerging triumphant from the Russian parliamentary elections. But it did not turn out that way, as the ruling party, United Russia, struggled to capture 50 per cent of the vote in a poll widely seen as rigged.

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