Now that the Davies Commission has made its recommendation, the ball is back in the government’s court. The biggest immediate challenge the government has to face is David Cameron’s 2009 remark that ‘the third runway at Heathrow is not going ahead, no ifs, no buts.’ As James noted at PMQs today, the Prime Minister’s body language did not suggest he is particularly favourable towards Heathrow.
But now the Airport Commission report has been received by the government, the buck has been passed to the Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin. While Cameron said in the Commons that a decision will be made ‘by the end of the year’, McLoughlin said it would be by September. He also offered the Prime Minister a useful way to backtrack from his 2009 promise:
‘I think what the Prime Minister was talking about initially was a proposal which was put forward by [Labour] which was not a proper proposal and would not have answered the question as far as capacity is concerned.’
There’s unlikely to be a Cabinet vote on the airport, so the decision will likely come down to a Commons vote. During the debate today, 62 MPs asked questions, 31 of which were positive and 19 were in opposition to Heathrow. Even if there are splits in the Tory party, Harriet Harman said suggested that assuming the tests were met, Labour would be backing Heathrow. The three main leadership candidates, Liz Kendall, Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham, all appear to be backing a third runway too.
Over the next six weeks, the government will liaise with Heathrow and businesses to examine the Davies proposals in details and bring together a suitable bill. Despite the very public opposition of Zac Goldsmith and Boris Johnson, the signs today suggest that Heathrow is finally shuffling towards getting the go-ahead for a third runway. Ladbrokes now have 9/4 odds on a Heathrow expansion, 4/1 on a Gatwick second runway and Boris airport at 6/1.
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