When you are ten points down in the polls everything you do is seen through that prism. So whenever the Tories announce a policy or talk about a topic, the media examine it for evidence of whether or not David Cameron is trying to shore up his right-wing or not. Everyone is looking to see if Cameron will follow Hague and Howard and tack back to the right if the polls continue to go against him.
So, news-reports—and Labour’s response–to the Redwood led economic competitiveness policy group report have concentrated not on its substance, the best analysis of which comes in the Sunday Telegraph, but on the extent to which it is designed to reassure traditionalists.
This same problem bedevils Cameron when he tries to talk about the treaty formerly known as the EU constitution. Labour know that backtracking on their referendum promise is potentially a huge vote-loser, which is one of the reasons why I remain sceptical about the prospects of an autumn poll given the time-frame for the formal signing of the new treaty, and so they hit back with the same old Tories, always banging on about Europe jibe and claim Cameron is about to go down the 24 hours to save the pound route whenever it is mentioned. If Cameron was ahead in the polls, this criticism could be brushed aside but with Tories in such trouble the attacks seem more credible, at least to the media.
The only consolation for the Tories is, as Iain Martin argues, that Brown’s position is one of exaggerated strength. There are lots of things that could come bring him down to earth; not least the novelty factor wearing off. If after the party conference season, the Tories start to really trim Brown’s poll lead the new narrative could be the Cameron comeback. But that’s the only silver lining to the increasingly grey cloud hovering over the Conservatives.
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