It’s a little too easy to dismiss the huge Labour rebellion on the Israel-Hamas war last night as ‘virtue signalling’. No one can deny that politicians were striking poses. A party, not in government, tearing itself apart about a conflict that does not involve the UK, over policy recommendations which all the combatants will ignore, in the unlikely event that they care enough about the British Labour party to even notice the vote in the first place.
In an interview that makes the hairs on the back of your neck stand on end, Ghazi Hamad, a senior Hamas member, praised the massacre of Israeli civilians on October 7, and vowed that his forces would massacre again and again because Israel ‘must be finished’. There’s little hope of him listening to calls for peace.
Labour’s convulsions unintentionally reveal western weakness and tell us a great deal what our next government will look like
Meanwhile the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a ceasefire four days ago unless Hamas released all hostages, and has repeatedly vowed to press on until Israel has destroyed its enemies. Once again, not much chance of him listening to the Labour left.
Sophisticated sneering, however, misses the point. Labour convulsions about Hamas unintentionally reveal western weakness and tell us a great deal about what our next government will look like.
Intentionally or not, Naz Shah, the Labour MP for Bradford West, got to the heart of western weakness when she rebelled yesterday and said ‘Whilst it may be a matter of convention to follow our closest ally, the US, in interests of foreign policy, it is a matter of conscience to step away from our closest ally in the interests of peace.’
David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, and Keir Starmer appeared to be briefing the rebels that the only feasible strategy for the British opposition, and indeed the British government, was to stick with the Biden administration. Labour politicians and their Democrat counterparts are far closer to each other than to Netanyahu’s coalition of ultra-nationalist and ultra-orthodox parties. Labour leaders should be able to believe that Biden has the power to influence the conflict. The United States committed over $3.3 billion in foreign assistance to Israel in 2022, after all. Biden has ordered the US aircraft carriers USS Eisenhower and USS Ford to the eastern Mediterranean to deter Hezbollah and Iran from attacking Israel from the north. And US troops in Iraq and Syria are paying the price for American solidarity with Israel as they face repeated attacks.
Netanyahu is not remotely grateful. The Biden administration has not shown that it has the power to control him. Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, looks a diminished figure as Netanyahu either ignores or gives a belated and grudging acknowledgement of American calls to allow aid into Gaza.
So, if there is something preposterous about the Labour rebel calls for a ceasefire, the leadership’s reliance on Washington to influence events may soon look equally absurd.
The leadership’s press team was trying to downplay the revolt this morning by saying that no members of the shadow cabinet rebelled. They were right, but Starmer still saw nearly a third of his MPs, including eight shadow frontbenchers, defy him, and he cannot dismiss that as a little local difficulty.
Nor can he say that the rebels consisted solely of the usual suspects. Jess Phillips has faced years of far-left attacks, while Stella Creasy, the Labour MP for Walthamstow, has in the past endured horrible antisemitic sneering as charming Corbynistas targeted her for the crime of falling for her Jewish partner.
I have no doubt that their stances were a sincere reaction to the sight of Israeli troops attacking a hospital, and of the suffering of innocent civilians trapped in a war zone with no way out.
But it is foolish to deny that the Gaza conflict did not also show how the Labour government will act after the next election. Dr Rosena Allin-Khan, the Labour MP for Tooting, spoke of the thousands who had contacted her about Gaza. Ninety-nine percent ‘have been respectfully putting forward their views’. But, she continued, ‘I have also had incidents that have had to be reported to the police, one where someone threatened to come and find me if I did not vote their way. I know my colleagues have faced threats and intimidation too – and it is unacceptable.’
Putting aside the threats, and the genuine horror at Israeli tactics as well, last night demonstrated the new era for Britain that will begin when the electorate finally ejects the Conservatives from office. New constituencies that have had little or no say in national affairs since David Cameron took power in 2010 will have a voice in government. Alongside renters, couples who want cheap homes to be built, will be the Labour Muslim vote. You could see the influence this had on the Commons. An analysis by Owen Winter of Stack Data Strategy found ‘a pretty striking relationship’ between the percentage of Muslim voters in a constituency and the likelihood of a Labour MP voting against Starmer on Gaza last night.
Despite predictions from far left and Conservative commentators that Starmer’s position on Gaza will lose Labour votes, there’s no evidence to support this at present. A recent poll of British Muslims gives Labour a 45-point lead (although this online poll may not be truly representative). It’s just that Muslim voters, like other Labour voters, will expect a Labour government to respond to their concerns.
How realistic any response can be when Netanyahu controls Israeli policy and Hamas dominates Palestinian politics is another matter. At some point the Israeli government will order its forces to cease firing. Will Keir Starmer be caught out when it does?
Hamas and the wider Islamist terror movement could well ignore any ceasefire and proclaim their desire to carry on killing Jews. Will Starmer’s Labour critics admit they have failed to understand radical Islam if it does?
The stances British politicians make on Gaza do not so much signal their virtue as reveal their impotence.
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