Tonight, caucus-goers in Iowa will deliver their verdict on this year’s Republican candidates for President. Above are Nate Silver’s latest poll-based projections of the result, showing three candidates with a decent chance of victory: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. Santorum, who has surged in Iowa over the past week following endorsements from influential social conservatives Bob Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley, could win tonight despite not having led a single poll.
Which candidate prevails will depend largely on turnout. Like Obama four years ago, Paul’s hopes lie with those who would not usually vote in the Republican caucuses: Independents, Democrats and young people. But, also like Obama four years ago, his supporters seem to be the most enthusiastic. Santorum, on the other hand, might want to see caucus-goers restricted to hard core Republicans, as he leads among evangelicals, those who describe themselves as ‘very conservative’, and Tea Party supporters. Romney’s ideal scenario may well be something in the middle.
If Romney wins, he will almost certainly follow it up with a win in New Hampshire next week, making him the presumptive nominee — and the first Republican (excluding sitting Presidents) to win both contests. Even a decent second-place finish wouldn’t be too bad for Romney. He’d still be likely to win New Hampshire and neither Paul nor Santorum look particularly strong outside of Iowa. Problems may come for Romney, though, if he can’t manage better than a poor third — especially if he finishes behind Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry.
While tonight’s contest might not determine who will win the nomination, it may well, in a few cases, determine who won’t. Michele Bachmann, for example, has focused her efforts on the Hawkeye State, but her win in August’s Ames straw poll now seems like a lifetime ago, and she is rooted in sixth in the polls. If she finishes there, her campaign will surely be over. Similarly, if Perry ends up with less than 10 per cent of the vote, he may well drop out and return to his Governor’s mansion in Texas. Jon Huntsman, on the other hand, will carry on to New Hampshire regardless, having long ago decided not to bother with Iowa.
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