The victory of the Freedom party in Austria’s general election came as Israel intensified its air strikes across Lebanon. Lebanon’s Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, says that more than one million people have been displaced from their homes as a consequence of the military strikes.
The ramifications of the turmoil in the Middle East will terrify Europe
Included in that figure are a substantial number of the estimated two million Syrian refugees who fled to Lebanon a decade ago to escape the war in their own country. Many have faced discrimination in Lebanon and it has been reported that during the Israeli air strikes Syrians have been refused entry into the country’s air raid shelters.
Thousands of Syrians are now returning to their homeland along with a growing number of Lebanese. They will find a country still ravaged by war. Earlier this month the UN Syria Commission of Inquiry warned that Syria faced ‘new waves of hostilities’.
The ramifications of the turmoil in the Middle East will terrify Europe. At the weekend the foreign secretaries of Britain, France and Germany called for a ceasefire. ‘A diplomatic solution is the only way to restore security and stability for the Lebanese and Israeli people,’ said David Lammy.
Ten years ago the war in Syria was at its height. In its end of year report, the United Nations Refugee Agency declared that ‘2014 was the year which the humanitarian assistance reached a breaking point and so if things do not improve we will face a critical situation.’
That situation duly arrived in 2015, and Europe’s response – or more specifically Germany’s response – was to throw open the continent’s doors in August that year. Approximately 1.3 million refugees and migrants surged into Europe, creating an instability that exists to this day.
That is why the Freedom Party triumphed in Austria’s election. Voters support Herbert Kickl’s goal of turning the country into ‘Fortress Austria’ after a decade of mass immigration.
In 2015 Austria was third behind Hungary and Sweden in terms of per capita asylum applications, and resentment has been steadily growing ever since. Immigration and insecurity were at the heart of the election. The Freedom Party claimed that the ruling centre-right People’s Party have ‘not secured our borders, but have degraded our police force to a kind of “welcoming committee” for illegal immigrants.’
An estimated 240,000 illegal immigrants have arrived in Austria since the People’s party won the 2020 election. This is despite the extensive publicity campaign launched by the government in 2022 to deter immigrants. Among the adverts broadcast on social media was one which read: ‘Illegal Migration: You will fail’. Another boasted ‘There’s no getting through’.
Like a growing number of centrist governments in Europe, the People’s party were punished for their failure to fulfil their promise to police their borders.
This issue has come to dominate European politics like no other, and parties ignore voters’ anger at their peril. Rishi Sunak paid the price for his inability to curb mass immigration (as will Keir Starmer in time) and Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz have seen their authority ebb away in the last two years because they sat on their hands while their borders were breached.
Europe is now confronted with a fresh refugee and migrant crisis in the Middle East. This time around no European leader will copy Angela Merkel in issuing an open invitation but there will surely be a marked increase in the number of people arriving illegally either through the Balkans or across the Mediterranean.
When Merkel opened up Europe in August 2015 she did so with a cry of ‘we can do this’. History has proved her hopelessly wrong. Europe will have to follow Austria’s example and turn itself into a fortress. If it doesn’t, the continent may in time go the same way as Lebanon.
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