Labour isn’t typically known for offering a more hawkish foreign policy platform than the Conservatives, but at the last election there was an exception: Iran.
Yvette Cooper and David Lammy have spoken in strong terms about toughening up Britain’s approach to Iran
George Robertson, the former defence secretary and Nato secretary general leading the government’s defence review, has described Tehran as part of the ‘deadly quartet’ of nations working together to challenge the Western-led global order.
Both Yvette Cooper and David Lammy have also previously spoken in strong terms about toughening up Britain’s approach to Iran. With the Home Office and Foreign Office on board, Sir Keir Starmer has the chance to enact a true cross-governmental strategy for combating this rising threat. But will he live up to the tough rhetoric?
There is no disputing the growing danger that the Islamic Republic poses to the UK and its allies. Much like Russia, Iran illustrates that a small and ramshackle economy is no barrier to being a strategic threat when a despotic government is prepared to hurl resources at the military.
Iranian forces are already in conflict with the West across several theatres including Ukraine, where it has supplied hundreds of surface-to-surface missiles and drones (such as Mohajer-6 and the Shahed kamikaze variant) to Russia.
These, alongside the Iranian trainers accompanying them, have been critical to Vladimir Putin’s sustained and devastating assault on Kyiv’s energy supplies and infrastructure. In return, the Kremlin has provided Russian Su-35 fighters, helicopters and sophisticated air defence systems, which Tehran hopes can intercept potential Israeli and US missiles.
Iran also threatens two of the world’s most important trade chokepoints, and has not been shy about applying pressure to destabilise global supply chains.
First, there’s the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. For good reason is it described as the world’s most important oil chokepoint: 30 per cent of the world’s seaborne trade crude oil passes through the Strait, along with 20 per cent of global Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) trade; in many cases there are no alternative means of bringing these volumes to market.
Earlier this year, Iranian commandos seized the MSC Aries, a Portuguese registered container ship, within international waters in the Strait, and since 2019, Iran has engaged in heightened naval action against European, American, and Israeli shipping in the Strait.
Since November, Tehran’s proxies in Yemen, the Houthis, have also been waging a sustained campaign against shipping in the Red Sea – a critical conduit for 30 per cent of the world’s container traffic.
Houthi militants have launched over 70 attacks on merchant vessels, causing global trade disruption and costly rerouting. As of end March 2024, volume of traffic passing through the Red Sea had fallen by half, and the much longer route via the Cape of Good Hope has seen a 100 per cent increase in traffic. One analysis forecasts global shipping prices could double, with dire consequences for inflation.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – the fundamentalist praetorian guard of Iran’s regime – has channelled hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of funding, supply of weapons and training to militia groups in Gaza, Iraq, and Lebanon as part of its strategy to draw a ‘ring of fire’ around Israel.
Nor has Tehran shrunk from attempting operations on our own soil. Counter-terrorism police revealed last year that 15 plots by Iran to either kidnap or kill British or UK-based individuals had been foiled by police or the security services.
The regime has been targeting its internal enemies, dissidents, and Farsi news organisations in the UK. MI5 fears it may start targeting other UK-based individuals in response to the war in Gaza.
In opposition, Labour were quick to call out the Conservatives for their alleged pusillanimity on Iran, especially its refusal to follow America’s lead and proscribe the IRGC. Cooper has promised to change the law to make it easier to outlaw such groups, while Lammy has previously raised concerns about Tehran’s nuclear programme.
But talk is cheap, especially when not in office, and it remains to be seen whether the government will follow through on its tough stance. It will certainly meet official resistance; a previous push to proscribe the IRGC was killed by the Foreign Office, which feared damaging diplomatic relations with Tehran.
Such attitudes belong in the past. We are already in combat with Iran and her proxies across multiple fronts – and the situation could get much hotter still. Hezbollah has amassed in Lebanon a huge rocket arsenal, and it would be foolish to bet against open conflict with Israel sooner rather than later.
Should that happen, the situation could rapidly devolve into a much broader, multi-theatre conflict across the Middle East, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House. Ministers should start preparing immediately – including for the possibility of allied operations against Iran itself. A showdown with Iran may be coming soon and Labour’s strong words will be sorely tested.
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