Five years ago, Reform UK had no presence in Scotland. Its Facebook and Twitter pages emerged during the latter half of the pandemic and despite briefly experiencing four months in Holyrood courtesy of a Tory defector, the group has since then remained very much out of sight and mind. Nigel Farage neglected Scotland during last year’s general election campaign, his deputy Richard Tice visited just once and the group still lacks a Scottish leader. Despite all that, however, Reform is shaping up to become kingmaker in the 2026 Holyrood election.
‘Everywhere I went, people were talking about Reform. And I thought: there’s something really going on here.’
On Thursday, The Spectator revealed that Thomas Kerr, the Scottish Conservative’s leader on Glasgow City Council and onetime Westminster by-election candidate, had defected to Reform. ‘Politically it was easy,’ he tells me – blaming his former party for having ‘fallen into the trap of being part of the left-wing consensus’ in Holyrood – ‘but emotionally, it was very hard.’ Kerr is adamant he hasn’t jumped ship to secure himself a top place on the Glasgow list next year. ‘I’ve not had a conversation with Reform about this at all,’ he tells me. ‘I need to put my family first.’
After spending 14 years as a Tory member, the 28-year-old describes how latterly he had found himself ‘scunnered’ with the party and was beginning to feel ‘finished with politics’. A period of soul searching followed, during which the Glasgow man noticed growing chatter about Reform. ‘Everywhere I went, people were talking about Reform: businesspeople, lawyers, punters in the pub, you name it. And I thought: there’s something really going on here.’
New recruits to Reform in Scotland have experienced political journeys not dissimilar to Kerr’s. ‘Fed up’ is the phrase most used to describe how the party finds its new members, as disillusion with politicians of all stripes continues to spread across the UK. Reform’s evolution from the Brexit party doesn’t much bother those newcomers who voted Remain, with Scots more frustrated about the status quo. ‘There’s a real anger out there,’ warns Kerr, ‘and Reform is particularly doing well with those people.’
This week’s Survation poll suggests the party could win 15 seats in 2026 – overtaking the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Greens to become the fourth biggest party in Holyrood. Organisers claim the group has already surpassed 7,700 members in Scotland to become the third most subscribed party north of the border, behind the SNP and Scottish Labour. Reform’s ability to stand in every constituency in Scotland helped raise its profile and, despite the very existence of their candidates coming into question, the party took 7 per cent of the country’s vote. ‘We have to take them seriously,’ says polling guru Mark Diffley. ‘It appears to me there is enough evidence now to suggest they will probably be around for some time.’
What is it about the Farage-founded group that draws Scots in? ‘People are still concerned in Scotland with immigration as well,’ insists Scotland’s Reform organiser Martyn Greene, who disagrees that Scots have different priorities to their British counterparts. Reform is also strongly supportive of Scotland’s oil and gas industry and is keen to push back against ‘net zero madness’. The party wants to bring down taxes, tear apart the ‘quangocracy’ and create better opportunities for business.
Policy aside, supporters like the very fact of Reform being just a bit different from Scotland’s usual politicians. ‘The Scottish Conservatives have become completely irrelevant in Scotland,’ insists Greene – who, like Kerr, was also a card-carrying Tory before falling out of love with his old party. Would Greene then define Reform as anti-establishment? ‘We’re definitely disrupting the current system of governance. Anti-establishment? Quite possibly.’
While Reform polls better among older, Brexit-supporting, conservative men it’s not just the Scottish Tories who should fear its rise. The Survation poll suggests that already 9 per cent of those who voted for Labour in July are turning to Farage’s group, and Labour insiders are nervous that Reform’s popularity could hit them hard among their older voter base in Scotland. Indeed, Councillor Kerr revealed that he’d been approached by colleagues more contemplative than concerned about his move – and they weren’t all Conservatives: ‘There were multiple people from Labour who spoke to me who were angry at the Labour government. I think over the next couple of months it could open a bit of a floodgate.’ Scotland organiser Greene confirms that the group is in talks with councillors from ‘all over Scotland’, adding mischievously: ‘If any MSP wants a conversation, we’re certainly happy to chat.’
All of Scotland’s main parties are losing supporters to the Farage-founded group. ‘We’ve had members from Labour, from the SNP – and even one chap that was an Alba member,’ reflected Greene. 6 per cent of those who supported independence in 2014 are backing Reform and 5 per cent of those who remain in favour of independence now are throwing their weight behind Farage’s party – despite its staunchly pro-union stance. ‘Independence has been put to bed for a generation,’ insists Reform’s Scottish organiser. ‘There’s absolutely no need to even look at it.’ But there’s no blockade to Scottish nationalists joining the party either – and Greene sympathises with those who supported the cause over frustration at the UK parliament. Some political opponents have warned that Reform’s Scotland branch doesn’t care much for the Scottish parliament – and could even try to dissolve it. ‘That’s completely wrong,’ he argues. ‘We’ve absolutely engaged with devolution. To try and remove devolution is fantasyland. But let’s make it work better.’
It’s a source of minor embarrassment for Holyrood parties that Reform is seeing a surge of support up north despite having no Scottish leader.
Reform picked up 14 per cent of the vote in Scotland’s northeast last July – and its organisers claim it is now seeing support from all over the country, from rural residents to city-dwellers. Party officials boast of high attendance at local branch meetings and claim to see an increasing number of younger adults getting involved. Part of this is down to a change of strategy, after Reform shifted its focus from a regional to local level. The party saw the build-up of branches across the country as a key step – it has 30 at present and plans to create more – and they will be responsible for choosing vetted candidates from an approved list ahead of the Holyrood poll. From street stall leafleting to door-to-door canvassing to its ferocious TikTok drive, Reform’s campaign machine is – unsurprisingly for a party led by Nigel Farage – in full flow. The party is even hosting a Burn’s Supper night soon to acquaint new members.
It’s a source of minor embarrassment for Holyrood parties that Reform is seeing a surge of support up north despite having no Scottish leader. Greene is adamant they won’t decide on a parliamentary group leader until they gain MSPs but he isn’t worried about the lack of a figurehead in Scotland affecting its electoral chances: ‘Nigel Farage is our party leader. He’s the most popular politician in Britain today and recognised as a true champion of the people.’ He still has his work cut out in winning over Scots, with his disapproval ratings higher than any other party leader. Not that the experts think the ex-Ukip man’s score is much of a problem. ‘If you look at where they’re polling and where their leader is, he’s certainly not a drag on their vote,’ Diffley notes. ‘These results tend to suggest he’s not holding the party back.’
Reform’s success poses serious questions about the make-up of the Scottish parliament post-2026. Polling predicts the SNP will remain the biggest group, but the nationalists are likely to be well off the numbers needed to form a majority government. Pollsters are sceptical of the feasibility of a pro-indy bloc forming – which would depend both on Alba politicians managing to get elected to Holyrood and the SNP agreeing to work with them – while the chances of Scotland’s unionist parties forming a coalition seem equally unlikely. Reform’s Scotland organiser won’t admit whether Reform has a seat target for 2026, chuckling instead that ‘going from zero to anything will be fantastic’. There’s no doubt though that if the party’s polling holds up, Reform UK will be the catalyst for a completely new type of politics in Holyrood.
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