As things stand, it looks inevitable that Theresa May’s Brexit deal will be defeated in the House of Commons on Tuesday, but what happens afterwards is the great unknown. While a number of MPs have voiced their opposition to May’s deal and no deal, the majority still have not made clear what they would support in its place. And unless there is a parliamentary majority for another option, Britain will leave the EU on 29 March without a deal by default.
So what is there a majority for in the Commons? In an attempt to find out, Coffee House has compiled the public Brexit position of every single Tory MP. Their views have been split into five different categories: supporting May’s deal, no deal, a second referendum, Norway, or ‘Undeclared’.
First, some notes about the categories:
- We have presumed that those who are currently supporting May’s deal will continue to do so (unless they say otherwise) if it returns to the Commons.
- Some of the MPs supporting the Norway option will vote for May’s deal on Tuesday, but then will push for their preferred Brexit outcome once it is defeated.
- Some of those listed as ‘no deal’ would prefer a Canada-style free trade deal, but we have presumed this will not be negotiable in time for Brexit day. Therefore their second choice of ‘no deal’ is listed as their official position
- The ‘Undeclared’ are MPs who do not support May’s deal (primarily because of the backstop) but have not offered an alternative position, and those who have not made their position public.
The current totals and the full list of MPs are below. Any position apart from no deal (which happens by default) will need 320 votes from Conservative and opposition MPs to achieve a majority in the Commons.
May’s deal: 177
No deal: 58
Undeclared: 65
Second referendum: 9
Norway: 7
| Name | Constituency | Brexit position |
| Nigel Adams | Selby and Ainsty | May’s deal – in government |
| Bim Afolami | Hitchin and Harpenden | Norway |
| Adam Afriyie | Windsor | Unconfirmed |
| Peter Aldous | Waveney | May’s deal |
| Lucy Allan | Telford | No deal |
| Heidi Allen | South Cambridgeshire | Second referendum |
| Sir David Amess | Southend West | No deal |
| Stuart Andrew | Pudsey | May’s deal |
| Edward Argar | Charnwood | May’s deal – in government |
| Victoria Atkins | Louth and Horncastle | May’s deal – in government |
| Richard Bacon | South Norfolk | Undeclared |
| Kemi Badenoch | Saffron Walden | May’s deal |
| Steve Baker | Wycombe | No deal |
| Harriett Baldwin | West Worcestershire | May’s deal – in government |
| Stephen Barclay | North East Cambridgeshire | May’s deal – in government |
| John Baron | Basildon and Billericay | No deal |
| Guto Bebb | Aberconwy | Second referendum |
| Sir Henry Bellingham | North West Norfolk | May’s deal |
| Richard Benyon | Newbury | May’s deal |
| Sir Paul Beresford | Mole Valley | May’s deal |
| Jake Berry | Rossendale and Darwen | May’s deal – in government |
| Bob Blackman | Harrow East | Undeclared |
| Crispin Blunt | Reigate | No deal |
| Nick Boles | Grantham and Stamford | Norway |
| Peter Bone | Wellingborough | No deal |
| Sir Peter Bottomley | Worthing West | May’s deal |
| Andrew Bowie | West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | May’s deal |
| Ben Bradley | Mansfield | No deal |
| Karen Bradley | Staffordshire Moorlands | May’s deal – in government |
| Sir Graham Brady | Altrincham and Sale West | Undeclared |
| Suella Braverman | Fareham | No deal |
| Jack Brereton | Stoke-on-Trent South | Undeclared |
| Andrew Bridgen | North West Leicestershire | No deal |
| Steve Brine | Winchester | May’s deal – in government |
| James Brokenshire | Old Bexley and Sidcup | May’s deal – in government |
| Fiona Bruce | Congleton | Undeclared |
| Robert Buckland | South Swindon | May’s deal – in government |
| Alex Burghart | Brentwood and Ongar | Undeclared |
| Conor Burns | Bournemouth West | Undeclared |
| Alistair Burt | North East Bedfordshire | May’s deal – in government |
| Alun Cairns | Vale of Glamorgan | May’s deal – in government |
| James Cartlidge | South Suffolk | Undeclared |
| Sir William Cash | Stone | No deal |
| Maria Caulfield | Lewes | Undeclared |
| Alex Chalk | Cheltenham | May’s deal |
| Rehman Chishti | Gillingham and Rainham | Undeclared |
| Sir Christopher Chope | Christchurch | No deal |
| Jo Churchill | Bury St Edmunds | May’s deal |
| Colin Clark | Gordon | May’s deal |
| Greg Clark | Tunbridge Wells | May’s deal – in government |
| Kenneth Clarke | Rushcliffe | May’s deal |
| Simon Clarke | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | No deal |
| James Cleverly | Braintree | May’s deal |
| Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown | The Cotswolds | May’s deal |
| Dr Thérèse Coffey | Suffolk Coastal | May’s deal – in government |
| Damian Collins | Folkestone and Hythe | Undeclared |
| Alberto Costa | South Leicestershire | May’s deal |
| Robert Courts | Witney | Undeclared |
| Geoffrey Cox | Torridge and West Devon | May’s deal – in government |
| Stephen Crabb | Preseli Pembrokeshire | May’s deal |
| Tracey Crouch | Chatham and Aylesford | Undeclared |
| Chris Davies | Brecon and Radnorshire | May’s deal |
| David T. C. Davies | Monmouth | May’s deal |
| Glyn Davies | Montgomeryshire | May’s deal |
| Mims Davies | Eastleigh | May’s deal – in government |
| Philip Davies | Shipley | No deal |
| David Davis | Haltemprice and Howden | No deal |
| Caroline Dinenage | Gosport | May’s deal – in government |
| Jonathan Djanogly | Huntingdon | May’s deal |
| Leo Docherty | Aldershot | May’s deal |
| Michelle Donelan | Chippenham | May’s deal |
| Nadine Dorries | Mid Bedfordshire | No deal |
| Steve Double | St Austell and Newquay | No deal |
| Oliver Dowden | Hertsmere | May’s deal |
| Jackie Doyle-Price | Thurrock | May’s deal – in government |
| Richard Drax | South Dorset | No deal |
| James Duddridge | Rochford and Southend East | No deal |
| David Duguid | Banff and Buchan | May’s deal |
| Iain Duncan Smith | Chingford and Woodford Green | No deal |
| Sir Alan Duncan | Rutland and Melton | May’s deal – in government |
| Philip Dunne | Ludlow | May’s deal |
| Michael Ellis | Northampton North | May’s deal – in government |
| Tobias Ellwood | Bournemouth East | May’s deal – in government |
| Charlie Elphicke | Dover | No deal |
| George Eustice | Camborne and Redruth | May’s deal – in government |
| Nigel Evans | Ribble Valley | No deal |
| Sir David Evennett | Bexleyheath and Crayford | Undeclared |
| Michael Fabricant | Lichfield | No deal |
| Sir Michael Fallon | Sevenoaks | Undeclared |
| Mark Field | Cities of London and Westminster | May’s deal – in government |
| Vicky Ford | Chelmsford | May’s deal |
| Kevin Foster | Torbay | May’s deal |
| Dr Liam Fox | North Somerset | May’s deal – in government |
| Mark Francois | Rayleigh and Wickford | No deal |
| Lucy Frazer | South East Cambridgeshire | May’s deal – in government |
| George Freeman | Mid Norfolk | May’s deal |
| Mike Freer | Finchley and Golders Green | May’s deal |
| Marcus Fysh | Yeovil | No deal |
| Sir Roger Gale | North Thanet | May’s deal |
| Mark Garnier | Wyre Forest | May’s deal |
| David Gauke | South West Hertfordshire | May’s deal – in government |
| Nusrat Ghani | Wealden | May’s deal – in government |
| Nick Gibb | Bognor Regis and Littlehampton | May’s deal – in government |
| Dame Cheryl Gillan | Chesham and Amersham | May’s deal |
| John Glen | Salisbury | May’s deal – in government |
| Zac Goldsmith | Richmond Park | Undeclared |
| Robert Goodwill | Scarborough and Whitby | May’s deal |
| Michael Gove | Surrey Heath | May’s deal – in government |
| Luke Graham | Ochil and South Perthshire | Undeclared |
| Richard Graham | Gloucester | May’s deal |
| Bill Grant | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | May’s deal |
| Helen Grant | Maidstone and The Weald | May’s deal |
| James Gray | North Wiltshire | No deal |
| Chris Grayling | Epsom and Ewell | May’s deal – in government |
| Chris Green | Bolton West | No deal |
| Damian Green | Ashford | May’s deal |
| Justine Greening | Putney | Second referendum |
| Dominic Grieve | Beaconsfield | Second referendum |
| Andrew Griffiths | Burton | Undeclared |
| Sam Gyimah | East Surrey | Second referendum |
| Kirstene Hair | Angus | Undeclared |
| Robert Halfon | Harlow | Norway |
| Luke Hall | Thornbury and Yate | May’s deal |
| Philip Hammond | Runnymede and Weybridge | May’s deal – in government |
| Stephen Hammond | Wimbledon | May’s deal – in government |
| Matt Hancock | West Suffolk | May’s deal – in government |
| Greg Hands | Chelsea and Fulham | Undeclared |
| Mark Harper | Forest of Dean | Undeclared |
| Richard Harrington | Watford | May’s deal – in government |
| Rebecca Harris | Castle Point | Undeclared |
| Trudy Harrison | Copeland | May’s deal |
| Simon Hart | Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire | May’s deal |
| Sir John Hayes | South Holland and The Deepings | Undeclared |
| Sir Oliver Heald | North East Hertfordshire | May’s deal |
| James Heappey | Wells | May’s deal |
| Chris Heaton-Harris | Daventry | May’s deal – in government |
| Peter Heaton-Jones | North Devon | May’s deal |
| Gordon Henderson | Sittingbourne and Sheppey | Undeclared |
| Nick Herbert | Arundel and South Downs | May’s deal |
| Damian Hinds | East Hampshire | May’s deal – in government |
| Simon Hoare | North Dorset | May’s deal |
| George Hollingbery | Meon Valley | May’s deal – in government |
| Kevin Hollinrake | Thirsk and Malton | May’s deal |
| Philip Hollobone | Kettering | No deal |
| Adam Holloway | Gravesham | No deal |
| John Howell | Henley | May’s deal |
| Nigel Huddleston | Mid Worcestershire | May’s deal |
| Eddie Hughes | Walsall North | Undeclared |
| Jeremy Hunt | South West Surrey | May’s deal – in government |
| Nick Hurd | Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner | May’s deal – in government |
| Alister Jack | Dumfries and Galloway | May’s deal |
| Margot James | Stourbridge | May’s deal – in government |
| Sajid Javid | Bromsgrove | May’s deal – in government |
| Ranil Jayawardena | North East Hampshire | Undeclared |
| Sir Bernard Jenkin | Harwich and North Essex | No deal |
| Andrea Jenkyns | Morley and Outwood | No deal |
| Robert Jenrick | Newark | May’s deal – in government |
| Boris Johnson | Uxbridge and South Ruislip | No deal |
| Dr Caroline Johnson | Sleaford and North Hykeham | May’s deal |
| Gareth Johnson | Dartford | Undeclared |
| Joseph Johnson | Orpington | Second referendum |
| Andrew Jones | Harrogate and Knaresborough | May’s deal – in government |
| David Jones | Clwyd West | No deal |
| Marcus Jones | Nuneaton | May’s deal |
| Daniel Kawczynski | Shrewsbury and Atcham | No deal |
| Gillian Keegan | Chichester | May’s deal |
| Seema Kennedy | South Ribble | May’s deal |
| Stephen Kerr | Stirling | May’s deal |
| Julian Knight | Solihull | May’s deal |
| Sir Greg Knight | East Yorkshire | Undeclared |
| Kwasi Kwarteng | Spelthorne | May’s deal – in government |
| Dame Eleanor Laing | Epping Forest | May’s deal |
| John Lamont | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Undeclared |
| Mark Lancaster | Milton Keynes North | May’s deal – in government |
| Pauline Latham | Mid Derbyshire | Undeclared |
| Andrea Leadsom | South Northamptonshire | May’s deal – in government |
| Dr Phillip Lee | Bracknell | Second referendum |
| Jeremy Lefroy | Stafford | May’s deal |
| Sir Edward Leigh | Gainsborough | May’s deal |
| Sir Oliver Letwin | West Dorset | Norway |
| Andrew Lewer | Northampton South | No deal |
| Brandon Lewis | Great Yarmouth | May’s deal – in government |
| Dr Julian Lewis | New Forest East | No deal |
| Ian Liddell-Grainger | Bridgwater and West Somerset | Undeclared |
| David Lidington | Aylesbury | May’s deal – in government |
| Julia Lopez | Hornchurch and Upminster | Undeclared |
| Jack Lopresti | Filton and Bradley Stoke | May’s deal |
| Jonathan Lord | Woking | Undeclared |
| Tim Loughton | East Worthing and Shoreham | No deal |
| Craig Mackinlay | South Thanet | No deal |
| Rachel Maclean | Redditch | May’s deal |
| Anne Main | St Albans | Undeclared |
| Alan Mak | Havant | Undeclared |
| Kit Malthouse | North West Hampshire | May’s deal – in government |
| Scott Mann | North Cornwall | Undeclared |
| Paul Masterton | East Renfrewshire | Norway |
| Theresa May | Maidenhead | May’s deal – (let’s hope so) |
| Paul Maynard | Blackpool North and Cleveleys | May’s deal |
| Sir Patrick McLoughlin | Derbyshire Dales | May’s deal |
| Stephen McPartland | Stevenage | Undeclared |
| Esther McVey | Tatton | No deal |
| Mark Menzies | Fylde | Undeclared |
| Johnny Mercer | Plymouth, Moor View | Undeclared |
| Huw Merriman | Bexhill and Battle | May’s deal |
| Stephen Metcalfe | South Basildon and East Thurrock | No deal |
| Maria Miller | Basingstoke | May’s deal |
| Amanda Milling | Cannock Chase | May’s deal |
| Nigel Mills | Amber Valley | Undeclared |
| Anne Milton | Guildford | May’s deal – in government |
| Andrew Mitchell | Sutton Coldfield | Undeclared |
| Damien Moore | Southport | Undeclared |
| Penny Mordaunt | Portsmouth North | May’s deal – in government |
| Nicky Morgan | Loughborough | Norway |
| Anne Marie Morris | Newton Abbot | No deal |
| David Morris | Morecambe and Lunesdale | May’s deal |
| James Morris | Halesowen and Rowley Regis | May’s deal |
| Wendy Morton | Aldridge-Brownhills | May’s deal |
| David Mundell | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | May’s deal – in government |
| Sheryll Murray | South East Cornwall | No deal |
| Dr Andrew Murrison | South West Wiltshire | May’s deal |
| Robert Neill | Bromley and Chislehurst | May’s deal |
| Sarah Newton | Truro and Falmouth | May’s deal – in government |
| Caroline Nokes | Romsey and Southampton North | May’s deal – in government |
| Jesse Norman | Hereford and South Herefordshire | May’s deal – in government |
| Neil O’Brien | Harborough | May’s deal |
| Dr Matthew Offord | Hendon | Undeclared |
| Guy Opperman | Hexham | May’s deal – in government |
| Neil Parish | Tiverton and Honiton | Undeclared |
| Priti Patel | Witham | No deal |
| Owen Paterson | North Shropshire | No deal |
| Mark Pawsey | Rugby | May’s deal |
| Sir Mike Penning | Hemel Hempstead | Undeclared |
| John Penrose | Weston-super-Mare | May’s deal – in government |
| Andrew Percy | Brigg and Goole | May’s deal |
| Claire Perry | Devizes | May’s deal – in government |
| Chris Philp | Croydon South | May’s deal |
| Christopher Pincher | Tamworth | May’s deal |
| Dr Dan Poulter | Central Suffolk and North Ipswich | Undeclared |
| Rebecca Pow | Taunton Deane | May’s deal |
| Victoria Prentis | Banbury | May’s deal |
| Mark Prisk | Hertford and Stortford | May’s deal |
| Mark Pritchard | The Wrekin | No deal |
| Tom Pursglove | Corby | No deal |
| Jeremy Quin | Horsham | May’s deal |
| Will Quince | Colchester | Undeclared |
| Dominic Raab | Esher and Walton | No deal |
| John Redwood | Wokingham | No deal |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg | North East Somerset | No deal |
| Laurence Robertson | Tewkesbury | No deal |
| Mary Robinson | Cheadle | May’s deal |
| Andrew Rosindell | Romford | No deal |
| Douglas Ross | Moray | Undeclared |
| Lee Rowley | North East Derbyshire | Undeclared |
| Amber Rudd | Hastings and Rye | May’s deal – in government |
| David Rutley | Macclesfield | May’s deal |
| Antoinette Sandbach | Eddisbury | May’s deal |
| Paul Scully | Sutton and Cheam | May’s deal |
| Bob Seely | Isle of Wight | May’s deal |
| Andrew Selous | South West Bedfordshire | May’s deal |
| Grant Shapps | Welwyn Hatfield | Undeclared |
| Alok Sharma | Reading West | May’s deal – in government |
| Alec Shelbrooke | Elmet and Rothwell | May’s deal |
| Keith Simpson | Broadland | Undeclared |
| Chris Skidmore | Kingswood | May’s deal – in government |
| Chloe Smith | Norwich North | May’s deal – in government |
| Henry Smith | Crawley | Undeclared |
| Julian Smith | Skipton and Ripon | May’s deal |
| Royston Smith | Southampton, Itchen | Undeclared |
| Sir Nicholas Soames | Mid Sussex | May’s deal |
| Anna Soubry | Broxtowe | Second referendum |
| Dame Caroline Spelman | Meriden | May’s deal |
| Mark Spencer | Sherwood | May’s deal |
| Andrew Stephenson | Pendle | Undeclared |
| John Stevenson | Carlisle | Norway |
| Bob Stewart | Beckenham | No deal |
| Iain Stewart | Milton Keynes South | May’s deal |
| Rory Stewart | Penrith and The Border | May’s deal – in government |
| Sir Gary Streeter | South West Devon | May’s deal |
| Mel Stride | Central Devon | May’s deal – in government |
| Graham Stuart | Beverley and Holderness | May’s deal – in government |
| Julian Sturdy | York Outer | Undeclared |
| Rishi Sunak | Richmond (Yorks) | May’s deal – in government |
| Sir Desmond Swayne | New Forest West | Undeclared |
| Sir Hugo Swire | East Devon | Undeclared |
| Sir Robert Syms | Poole | Undeclared |
| Derek Thomas | St Ives | No deal |
| Ross Thomson | Aberdeen South | No deal |
| Maggie Throup | Erewash | May’s deal |
| Kelly Tolhurst | Rochester and Strood | May’s deal – in government |
| Justin Tomlinson | North Swindon | May’s deal – in government |
| Michael Tomlinson | Mid Dorset and North Poole | No deal |
| Craig Tracey | North Warwickshire | Undeclared |
| David Tredinnick | Bosworth | Undeclared |
| Anne-Marie Trevelyan | Berwick-upon-Tweed | No deal |
| Elizabeth Truss | South West Norfolk | May’s deal – in government |
| Tom Tugendhat | Tonbridge and Malling | May’s deal |
| Edward Vaizey | Wantage | May’s deal |
| Shailesh Vara | North West Cambridgeshire | No deal |
| Martin Vickers | Cleethorpes | Undeclared |
| Theresa Villiers | Chipping Barnet | Undeclared |
| Charles Walker | Broxbourne | May’s deal |
| Robin Walker | Worcester | May’s deal |
| Ben Wallace | Wyre and Preston North | May’s deal – in government |
| David Warburton | Somerton and Frome | May’s deal |
| Matt Warman | Boston and Skegness | May’s deal |
| Giles Watling | Clacton | No deal |
| Helen Whately | Faversham and Mid Kent | May’s deal |
| Heather Wheeler | South Derbyshire | May’s deal – in government |
| Craig Whittaker | Calder Valley | May’s deal |
| John Whittingdale | Maldon | No deal |
| Bill Wiggin | North Herefordshire | Undeclared |
| Gavin Williamson | South Staffordshire | May’s deal – in government |
| Dr Sarah Wollaston | Totnes | Second referendum |
| Mike Wood | Dudley South | Undeclared |
| William Wragg | Hazel Grove | Undeclared |
| Jeremy Wright | Kenilworth and Southam | May’s deal – in government |
| Nadhim Zahawi | Stratford-on-Avon | May’s deal – in government |
Think there’s a mistake in one of the entries? Email John at jconnolly@spectator.co.uk
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