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Which Tory seats would survive a Labour landslide?

Photo by Stefan Rousseau - WPA Pool/Getty Images

According to the polls, the Conservative party are heading for a landslide defeat at the next election. The Daily Telegraph this week published a mammoth YouGov survey of 14,000 people which forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority. This would mean that more than half the Conservative parliamentary party would be wiped out: a bigger loss in seats than the 1997 disaster.

Below is a list of the 169 seats forecast to stay blue in the Telegraph/MRP poll under the revised boundary changes. According to YouGov, ‘notional results calculations allow us to see what the outcome in each seat would have been if the last election had used those boundaries, and therefore which seats would be changing hands.’ Of the 169 seats, 141 would be represented by sitting MPs. The remaining 28 have new candidates; all but seven of these have now been selected.

  1. Aldershot – Leo Docherty
  2. Aldridge-Brownhills – Wendy Morton
  3. Amber Valley – Nigel Mills
  4. Arundel and South Downs – Andrew Griffith
  5. Ashford – Damian Green
  6. Basildon and Billericay – new candidate
  7. Beaconsfield – Joy Morrissey
  8. Beverley and Holderness – Graham Stuart
  9. Bexhill and Battle – Huw Merriman
  10. Bognor Regis and Littlehampton – new candidate
  11. Boston and Skegness – Matt Warman
  12. Bracknell – James Sunderland
  13. Braintree – James Cleverly
  14. Brentwood and Ongar – Alex Burghart
  15. Bridgwater – Ashley Fox (new candidate)
  16. Bridlington and The Wolds – Charlie Dewhirst (new candidate)
  17. Brigg and Immingham – Martin Vickers
  18. Broadland and Fakenham – Jerome Mayhew
  19. Bromsgrove – Bradley Thomas (new candidate)
  20. Broxbourne – Lewis Cocking (new candidate)
  21. Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket – Jo Churchill
  22. Cannock Chase – Amanda Milling
  23. Castle Point – Rebecca Harris
  24. Central Devon – Mel Stride
  25. Central Suffolk and North Ipswich – Dan Poulter
  26. Chatham and Aylesford – New candidate
  27. Chelmsford – Vicky Ford
  28. Chesham and Amersham – Gareth Williams (new candidate)
  29. Chester South and Eddisbury – Aphra Brandreth (new candidate)
  30. Christchurch – Christopher Chope
  31. Clacton – Giles Watling
  32. Congleton – Fiona Bruce
  33. Daventry – Chris Heaton-Harris
  34. Derbyshire Dales – Sarah Dines
  35. Droitwich and Evesham East – Nigel Huddleston
  36. Grinstead and Uckfield – Mims Davies
  37. East Hampshire –Damian Hinds
  38. East Surrey –Claire Coutinho
  39. East Wiltshire – Danny Kruger
  40. Epping Forest – Eleanor Laing
  41. Exmouth and Exeter East – David Reed (new candidate)
  42. Fareham and Waterlooville – Suella Braverman
  43. Faversham and Mid Kent – Helen Whatley
  44. Finchley and Golders Green – Mike Freer
  45. Folkestone and Hythe – Damian Collins
  46. Forest of Dean – Mark Harper
  47. Fylde – Mark Menzies
  48. Gainsborough – Edward Leigh
  49. Goole and Pocklington – David Davis
  50. Gosport – Caroline Dineage
  51. Grantham and Bourne – Gareth Davies
  52. Great Yarmouth – Brandon Lewis
  53. Hamble Valley – Paul Holmes
  54. Harborough, Oadby and Wigston – Neil O’Brien
  55. Harwich and North Essex – Bernard Jenkin
  56. Havant – Alan Mak
  57. Hereford and South Herefordshire – New candidate
  58. Herne Bay and Sandwich – Roger Gale
  59. Hertford and Stortford – Julie Marson
  60. Hertsmere – Oliver Dowden
  61. Hinckley and Bosworth – Luke Evans
  62. Hitchin – Bim Afolami
  63. Honiton and Sidmouth – Simon Jupp
  64. Hornchurch and Upminster – Julia Lopez
  65. Huntingdon – Benjamin Obese-Jecty (new candidate)
  66. Kenilworth and Southam – Jeremy Wright
  67. Kingswinford and South Staffordshire – Mike Wood
  68. Lichfield – Michael Fabricant
  69. Louth and Horncastle – Victoria Atkins
  70. Maidenhead – Theresa May
  71. Maidstone and Malling – Helen Grant
  72. Maldon – John Whittingdale
  73. Melksham and Devizes – Michelle Donelan
  74. Melton and Syston – Ed Argar
  75. Meriden and Solihull East – Saqib Bhatti
  76. Mid Bedfordshire – New candidate
  77. Mid Buckinghamshire – Greg Smith
  78. Mid Derbyshire – Luke Gardiner (new candidate)
  79. Mid Leicestershire – Peter Bedford (new candidate)
  80. Mid Norfolk – George Freeman
  81. Mid Sussex – Kristy Adams (new candidate)
  82. New Forest East – Julian Lewis
  83. New Forest West – Desmond Swayne
  84. Newark – Robert Jenrick
  85. Newton Abbot – Anne Marie Morris
  86. North Bedfordshire – Richard Fuller
  87. North Cotswolds – Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
  88. North Dorset – Simon Hoare
  89. North East Cambridgeshire – Steve Barclay
  90. North East Hampshire – Ranil Jayawardena
  91. North East Hertfordshire – Oliver Heald
  92. North East Somerset and Hanham – Jacob Rees-Mogg
  93. North Herefordshire – Bill Wiggin
  94. North Norfolk – Duncan Baker
  95. North Northumberland –...

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