The Spectator

Which were the closest US elections?

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issue 26 October 2024

Back to the White House

If Donald Trump wins on 6 November, he will be the first US President to serve two separated terms since Grover Cleveland, who was president between 1885-89 and 1893-97. Cleveland actually won a higher share of the popular vote in the 1888 election, but lost to Benjamin Harrison in the electoral college after an election fought on the issue of trade tariffs. Cleveland’s wife Frances was confident she would return to the White House, reputedly telling her staff to keep things in good order for when they return four years to the day. So it proved – Cleveland won the 1892 election easily.

Close calls

The closest US elections in terms of margins in the electoral college:

1876  Rutherford Hayes 185, Samuel Tilden 184

1796  John Adams 71, Thomas Jefferson 68

2000 George W. Bush 271, Al Gore 266

1800  Thomas Jefferson 73, John Adams 65

1824  John Quincy Adams 84,

Andrew Jackson 99 (Quincy Adams became president because no candidate had an absolute majority and so the House of Representatives decided the issue.)

The right to buy

Angela Rayner is to constrict the right to buy by lowering discounts and increasing the period in which tenants must live in a property before they qualify.

– Between 1980 and 2023 there were 2,017,590 council property sales under the right to buy in England. In 2022-23 there were 10,896 sales, raising £1.108bn: an average £101,713 per property. However, the receipts only funded the construction or purchase of 3,447 replacement units. In spite of high house prices, authorities in London did manage to replace more than half the units sold in London – there were 1,858 sales and 1,131 replacements. The East and South West were the only other regions to replace more than half the units sold.

– The region with the lowest rate of replacement was the North East, where 731 properties were sold under right to buy in 2022-23, with only 9 replacements.

Source: Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities

On the take

Years when tax revenues as a share of GDP rose the most (as a percentage point):

1974 +2.7

1961, 1981 +2.0

1996, 1997, 2021 +1.5

1969 +1.3

1967 +1.2

They were highest in 1948, at 37.2%, and lowest in 1960, at 27.9%.

Source: IFS

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