Who Does David Cameron Want to See Win in Scotland?

That’s the question Jeff Breslin asks at Better Nation and, as a bonus, he gets the answer right too: Alex Salmond. In truth, it’s not a difficult question no matter how one approaches it.

From a governance perspective the SNP have been modestly underwhelming. This still represents a major advance from the days of the Labour-Lib Dem coalition that preceded them. Nor is there any reason to hope for anything this time around from a Labour party actively hostile to anything that might even be mistaken for a fresh idea. On those grounds alone, a Labour minority ministry in Edinburgh is a dreary prospect.

The Scottish elections in May are likely – nay bound! – to be interpreted in a UK context by much of the London press. They shouldn’t be but they will be. Labour advances will be seen as some kind of repudiation of the coalition’s policies. Doubtless there may be some voters who feel that way but except in the (admittedly important) matter of perception, a good result for Labour in Scotland will have almost nothing to do with Ed Miliband.

Nevertheless, victory in Scotland will cheer Labour up (though it may also renew their faith in the kind of shop-soiled shibboleths that seem to be Miliband’s most treasured possessions) and that alone provides reason for Cameron to hope Salmond sees off Iain Gray.

Nor should Conservatives, north or south of the border, fear the constitutional question. Hell, they should have embraced it in the past and backed Salmond’s shelved plans for a referendum on independence. There’s little to fear on that front and little reason to be afraid of it in the short to medium term either. That dog’s not hunting at the moment.

Ideally, the Tories would find a way to enter coalition with the SNP in Edinburgh. For a number of reasons this remains a leap too far for many, indeed the majority, in both parties. But it remains the sensible division of Scottish politics. Short of that the Tories should hope to be in a position from which they can extract modest concessions from SNP budgets as part of the price for supporting, unofficially of course, a minority SNP ministry.

The question of the long-term future for centre-right voters in Scotland  – and which party they should call home – remains a matter for another time…