The Coral Welsh Grand National is my favourite jumps race of the whole season, largely because I have enjoyed a good record in the race over the years.
You need a strong stayer, a good jumper and a well-handicapped horse to win the race. Usually, you want a mud-lover too but that’s not guaranteed this time around because of the lack of rain this autumn and early winter.
Chepstow, with its undulations and fairly tight turns, is a specialist track as well, so I usually only fancy horses with strong form at the course.
This year, however, I am going to make an exception and back a horse that ran in the race last year, only to be pulled up after his jockey lost an iron following a blunder at the ninth fence.
THE BIG DOG comes into the race this year hoping to land a hat-trick of big-race victories after two excellent wins in big-field handicaps in Ireland.
Peter Fahey’s nine-year-old gelding is extremely well handicapped as he can race here off only a 4lbs penalty for his win at Navan last month. Yet he has been put up 10lbs by the Irish handicapper for future races, which makes him favourably weighted for the Chepstow marathon.
Fahey confirmed the Welsh National race as The Big Dog’s target yesterday, saying he was hopeful of a ‘huge’ performance. I share that view and make him a decent each way bet at 12-1 with Coral and other bookies. The more rain between now and the off, the better because all his best form is with cut in the ground.
The dangers are headed by Venetia Williams’ Quick Wave, who is also well handicapped under his 4lbs penalty for a comfortable win at Sandown last weekend on his seasonal debut. At bigger prices, mud-lover Full Back could prove each-way value too but only if the rain arrives, so he is not a bet for now.
A week tomorrow, I will be hoping that ANNSAM wins the Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase for the second year in succession.
Evan Williams’ seven-year-old gelding is a huge favourite of mine and I backed him each way at 50-1 ante post for last month’s Coral Gold Cup at Newbury.
He gave me a good run for my money that day leading for much of the race before tiring into sixth place. However, he lost plenty of ground by jumping right on the left-handed track and he will be much better at Ascot jumping right-handed.
I don’t know for certain that this Ascot race is his target again but, with a first prize of nearly £57,000, I would be surprised if connections swerved the contest provided the horse is fit and well. Back Annsam 2 points win at 8-1 with most bookmakers offering that price.
Now down to a chase rating of 135, Annsam is just 1lb higher than he was when he won the race 12 months ago. The likeable Williams thinks the world of this horse and hopes he could be a Grand National contender this season or next.
To be (almost) guaranteed a run in the Aintree National, Annsam would need a rating of around 145 so he needs to win a big race sooner rather than laterto go up in the weights and to have a chance of lining up in the famous Aintree contest.
With the cold snap likely to play havoc with this weekend’s racing, I am not going to put up any bets tomorrow.
But I think both Deyrann de Carjac, with cheekpieces fitted, and Fugitif, who will appreciate the step up in trip, can outrun their odds in the AIS December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (1.50 p.m.), if Cheltenham gets the green light for racing tomorrow.
Pending bets:
2 points win Annsam for the Howden Silver Cup at 8-1.
1 point each way The Big Dog for the Welsh Grand National at 12-1, paying ¼ four places.
Settled:
1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022-3 jumps season, running total – 2 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either one-point each way or two-points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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