The latest exit polls in Poland suggest that liberal Warsaw mayor, Rafal Trzaskowski, has won the first round of the presidential elections, with 31 per cent of the vote.
Trzaskowski is a career politician, the heart-throb son of a jazz musician. He ran on a pro-European platform and has pledged to defend the independence of the judiciary and rebuild Poland’s democratic institutions. He is the candidate for Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party, and is seen as a progressive and a ‘moderniser’ who represents a more cosmopolitan and outward-facing Poland.
His rival, conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki, came in second with 29 per cent of the vote. Nawrocki, a historian with very little political experience, stood as an independent but is backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party. He is seen as the Eurosceptic ‘populist’ candidate, gaining votes for his anti-Ukrainian and patriotic rhetoric.
While the result may on the surface appear to be a victory for Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party, conservatives in Poland see it differently
If the official result, not expected until later today, confirms the poll, the election will now go to a second round, a run-off between Nawrocki and Trzaskowski, which will take place on June 1.
While the result may on the surface appear to be a victory for Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party, conservatives in Poland see it differently, and the figures suggest they might be right to feel optimistic.
For a start, Nawrocki was expected to come in five or six percentage points behind Trzaskowski. The actual margin appears to be much smaller than predicted and puts Nawrocki in a strong position. But it is the results further down the list which might mean victory for Nawrocki in June.
Slawomir Mentzen, candidate for the political party Konfederacja, which is to the right of Law and Justice, came in third with 15 per cent of the vote, again higher than was expected. And another right-wing candidate, Grzegorz Braun, who stood as an independent, came in fourth with 6.2 per cent of the vote. Braun caused controversy recently when he used a fire extinguisher to douse the candles of a Hannukah menorah in the Polish Sejm (parliament). If Mentzen’s and Braun’s voters back Nawrocki in the second round, this should lead to his victory.
The results on the other side of the aisle point to this result as well. Tusk’s coalition partner, Szymon Holownia, from the far left ‘Third Way’ party, had an embarrassingly bad result. He came sixth with only 4.8 per cent of the vote. Holownia, the Speaker of the Sejm and former host of Mam Talent, Poland’s version of Britain’s Got Talent, had expected to do much better.
The result of the second round will be key for prime minister Donald Tusk. While Poland is a parliamentary democracy, the president has significant influence. They are commander-in-chief, have veto powers, shape foreign policy and can influence the national discourse.
Until now, Donald Tusk’s left coalition, which came to power in 2023, has been endlessly frustrated by the outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, and his presidential veto, which was recently used to block reform to social security payments.
With an ally as president, Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition would have no problem pushing through its reforms. Trzaskowski has vowed, for example, not to obstruct the government over issues like easing access to abortion. Trzaskowski is also likely to agree to Poland taking part in military unification within the EU and to the imposition of the Euro.
A Nawrocki victory, on the other hand, would ensure that socially conservative, traditional Catholic Poles, many of whom live rurally, continue to have influence nationally. His victory would be a counterweight to Tusk’s left-leaning coalition.
He would not be a puppet of the Law and Justice party though. ‘Nawrocki is supported by Law and Justice currently, but does not appear to listen to anyone’s orders’ says Matthew Kielanowski, a lawyer and former government advisor. Trzaskowski, however, is more elusive, with many seeing him as a careerist who will say whatever is needed to get ahead.
Much could still change over the next few weeks. Poland’s three biggest broadcasters are planning to hold a televised debate between the two second-round candidates on Wednesday this week. Only Trzaskowski has so far confirmed his participation. Either way, slurs rather than sophistication will likely characterise the remainder of this race. As the Polish saying goes: ‘Democracy is only when we win’.
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