There is an argument that British politics since 1994 is a historical freak, a product of a period of ever-increasing prosperity which allowed politicians to avoid the hard choices that typically define politics. As Charles Moore puts it in today’s Telegraph,
“our two main parties have both been caught facing the wrong way. Their policy preoccupations, their political positioning, their promises have depended on perpetual prosperity. Now these look as relevant as estate agents’ freesheets offering timeshares in Spain. When a really big crisis hits, it takes people a surprisingly long time to understand the basic point, which is that Everything is Different Now. Fear makes people reluctant to admit this, and plays into the hands of those in charge. The difference lies in this: debt is an opportunity when values are rising and a crushing burden when they fall.”
As Charles argues, if everything has changed then some things are going to need to be thought-through from first principles again:
“If everything is different, and everything is bad, everything must be looked at afresh. Does the remit of the Bank of England have to change? Do we need more inflation? Would tax cuts for the low-paid help to get things going, even if they increase the deficit? Would lower interest rates work? If not, might it be a brilliant political coup to bring back mortgage interest tax relief and so keep middle-class heads above water (and voting for you)? And if everything is different, the political prize will go to the first leader to articulate this, and explain how we should confront this new, much grimmer world. The fascination of our politics just now is that it is not obvious who that leader will be.”
Gordon Brown is still too wedded to his stint as Chancellor to rethink things, especially as that would involve admitting error on his part. The Tories need to show the public that they understand that things are different now and will be for the next few years. There is, I suspect, a considerable reward for the first politician to level with the public about how bad things are.
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