Here we go again. In what appears now to be an annual event, the Japanese prime minister has resigned. In a press conference on Sunday evening, Shigeru Ishiba, who had only been in the job since last October, explained that he was leaving because his continuation in post would prove divisive for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). It is time, he said, for the ‘next generation’ to take over.
Ishiba had lost his party’s majority in both lower and upper house elections (he headed a minority coalition government) and is now irredeemably tainted by failure. He has no faction or support group to stand up for him and couldn’t have credibly presented himself as the man to either unite and rebuild his declining party or make any headway in solving Japan’s myriad, complex problems. It could be argued he blew it all very early, by calling a snap general election, needlessly, last October, which went spectacularly wrong and left him a dead man walking. He would surely have been pushed had he not jumped.
The news of Ishiba’s resignation has been greeted with barely a flicker of emotion here in Japan, though to be fair there is perhaps no country in the world where the resignation of the country’s political leader has less impact. For one thing, it is becoming so monotonous, almost rhythmic. Ishiba was the twelfth PM this century (Shinzo Abe, the only one who seemed to enjoy the job, took up eight of those years). There is also a profound sense of ennui with mainstream politics, especially the doings of the LDP, which seems to be produce a succession of relentlessly uncharismatic leaders (Ishiba was no exception) who arrive, achieve little, and then depart.
That may be about to change a bit though, as the two front runners to succeed Ishiba do have something that may pique the interest of the public, though not necessarily in a positive way. The early favourite is Shinichiro Koizumi, son of former PM the ‘Lion King’ Junichiro Koizumi, he of the luxuriant grey tresses, who was the closest thing Japan has had to a veritable star performer on the political stage. More Javier Millei than JFK, the Elvis and Wagner loving Koizumi senior held office from 2001 to 2006, and if he didn’t achieve a great deal in that time, it was at least interesting. He was different and is remembered fondly.
His son, the 44-year old Shinjiro, has benefitted greatly from his father’s political inheritance (literally, he took over the same seat). But though Shinjiro is telegenic and genial, he is regarded as being far less able than his dad. He has so far attracted fans and detractors in equal measure and with equal intensity. The former seem beguiled by his boy band looks and ‘yes we can’ positivity, the latter are by turns amused and alarmed by his frequent gaffes, such as revealing that he had arrived at Japan’s target for CO2 emissions target when he was environment minister via a vision. Or when he described climate change as ‘cool and sexy’.
Despite his reputation as a jejune lightweight (even a bit dim), he has stuck around and even had a minor success early this year when as agriculture minister he managed to cut through the red tape and liberated some stocks of low quality rice, which were then sold cheaply, helping to alleviate the cost of living crisis. It was Koizumi, it is rumoured, who had a word in Ishiba’s ear and told him his time was up. Ishiba’s comment about wanting the ‘next generation’ to lead the LDP might be a hint that the party wants Koizumi – the only newish candidate – to take over from him.
Then we have the spiky, slightly scary (to some) Sanae Takaichi, who is of the same generation as Ishiba and a party veteran who has held various cabinet roles. She lost out in the run off to be PM against Ishiba, which since Ishiba was never popular, suggests there is considerable opposition to her within the LDP. Takiachi, who reveres Margaret Thatcher and was once a drummer in a rock band, is usually portrayed as either ‘far right’ or more respectfully as deeply conservative. She is a regular and unapologetic visitor to Yasukuni shrine, which commemorates Japan’s WW2 dead. She supports revising Japan’s pacifist constitution and is against government spending splurges. She would be Japan’s first female prime minister.
Beyond these two and we are back in safe and steady territory, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimsasa Hayashi, a solid, experienced party man who as a bonus speaks perfect English. Or, and this may come as a ride surprise to LDP grandees, there is the outside possibility of the next PM coming from another party, as they will need parliamentary approval. That opens the door a fraction to former prime minister (and Alex Salmond lookalike) Yoshihiko Noda, of the on-the-up Constitutional Democratic Party, or even the dynamic and ambitious Yuchiro Tamaki of the small, right-ish Democratic Party of the People.
These two may have their merits, but to an increasingly demoralised and jaded electorate they are likely to appear as just more of the same. The recent Upper House elections, in which Japan’s Reform analogue Sanseito (who are strongly opposed to any increase in immigration) made great progress, surely proved there is an appetite for something new and different.
Or at least in some way novel. And of the mainstream, only Koizumi and Takaichi appear to be offering that. They are likely to get most of the attention, and for the lawmakers tasked with making the decision, it may end up as a case of which of the two they dislike least.
But then what? The minor thrill of the first woman prime minister, or a good-looking youthful one from a political dynasty, won’t last long unless they can deliver, which will be difficult as the head of a fractious, perhaps even moribund party in a minority government that already looks clapped out.
All in all, a pretty desperate state of affairs and one which the upstart parties, particularly Sanseito, will be monitoring with relish.
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