Andrew McQuillan

Who would want to replace Arlene Foster?

(Photo by Charles McQuillan/Getty Images)

Arlene Foster has announced that she will be standing down as DUP leader on the 28 May and First Minister of Northern Ireland at the end of June, bowing to the inevitable after the arithmetic suggested that 80 per cent of her Stormont and Westminster colleagues were set against her leadership continuing. 

This will be welcomed by those who in recent days orchestrated manoeuvres against her; Foster staging a defiant last stand had the potential to turn the leadership election poisonous very quickly, which was the last thing the embattled party needs.

Who would honestly want to replace Foster now, such is the troubling in-tray she is handing over to her successor? The challenge is two-fold in advance of 2022’s Assembly election. First, retain the support of those who believe the party has betrayed Unionism by failing to prevent the introduction of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Second, regain the support of that unaligned chunk of the electorate who previously lent them their vote come polling day, who have now been put off by the party’s attitude and vote Alliance, Ulster Unionist or not at all. Failure to achieve these two aims could allow Sinn Fein to become the largest party, a doomsday scenario.

It is likely that the concerns of the base will determine the trajectory the party pursues

Studies, particularly after the 2019 general election, have shown that the latter, more moderate bloc is numerically more significant than the former. Yet based on the mood music over the past 24 hours, it is likely that the concerns of the base will determine the trajectory the party pursues. For example, reports in the Northern Irish press claim some DUP politicians are fearful of being on the receiving end of abuse when their Orange lodges convene for the summer marching season.

The early front-runner is Edwin Poots, the Stormont agriculture minister hewn from solid DUP stock.

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