Irish trainer John ‘Shark’ Hanlon recently asked whether he was mad to think his horse Hewick could win the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup. Since the colourful Irishman has never had a runner in the Gold Cup and since the horse in question cost around £800, there was almost certainly a resounding reply from both sides of the Irish Sea: ‘Yes, you are totally bonkers.’
I would be very surprised if the likes of Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Henry de Bromhead and Paul Nicholls are quaking in their boots at the prospect of taking on Hanlon’s improving handicapper on St Patrick’s Day (17 March). But I am not so sure that the affable Irish handler is at all crazy to think that Hewick does have a real chance of lifting this season’s premier title at the Festival.
In an interview with the Racing Post this month, Hanlon reported that Hewick had come back from a break at his owner’s stables looking stronger and ‘a million dollars’. He added: ‘Am I mad to think he has got a massive chance of winning a Gold Cup? If he gets good ground, I think he’s got every chance. We will give him a couple of bits of work from now until March, but I’m not going to run him beforehand. I want to go straight there and hopefully the ground will have dried out nicely by the Friday.’
I must confess I have a slight bias towards the horse because, when writing my previous tipping column, I put him up as a great bet at 33-1 to win last year’s bet365 Gold Cup (that’s the Whitbread in old money). Hewick duly romped home by eight lengths under a lovely ride from claimer Jordan Gainford off a rating of 149. Today, after some more top runs in Ireland and the US, the official handicapper has Hewick on a mark of 167, within touching distance of the very best chasers in Ireland and Britain.
Hanlon bought Hewick as a three-year-old at a sale in Ireland for 850 euros (less than £800). The gelding, who is now reaching his prime at eight years old, has never stopped improving in the trainer’s care. It means that he could provide this year’s Cheltenham Festival with the greatest fairytale story since Norton’s Coin lifted the 1990 Gold Cup at odds of 100-1 for little-known Welsh dairy farmer Sirrell Griffiths.
HEWICK is very much a good ground performer so, if the going came up very soft in March, Hanlon might not run him. He also has an entry in the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, which it is not impossible he might switch to if the race cuts up. With this in mind, back him each way at 20-1 Non Runner No Bet with bet365 for the Gold Cup rather than the 25-1 on offer with other bookies without the NRNB concession.
At the prices, I can’t resist also backing ROYALE PAGAILLE for the Gold Cup. Venetia Williams will surely train him for this race now that her number one contender L’Homme Presse is injured and will miss it.
Royale Pagaille is no mug himself, particularly when the ground is ‘soft’ or ‘heavy’. He would have been third in the Gold Cup last year had he not made a bad mistake four out. However, he is a slightly fragile horse and he might miss the race if the ground is riding very fast. So back him each way NRNB too with bet365, at 50-1 rather than at odds of up at 66-1 with bookies without the NRNB concession.
With Ascot’s card already off tomorrow and Haydock’s meeting in doubt, I am not going to put up any bets this weekend. Indeed, for the next two months this column will often be looking ahead to the Festival, with more plenty more antepost bets guaranteed at tasty prices.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Royale Pagaille at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
Settled:
1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7th). – 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.
1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced (4th). – 2 points.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2nd. + 3 points.
1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. 3rd. + 2 points.
1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25 p.m. paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 16.4 points.
2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with Skybet. 1st. + 10 points.
1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.
1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3 p.m. rce, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022-3 jumps season, running total + 21.4 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either one-point each way or two-points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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