Why all the certainty about the referendum result?

Right at the start of this campaign, a senior figure at Vote Leave told me that if they were level in the opinion polls on referendum day, they would win. Their view was that differential turnout, with their voters being more enthusiastic, would overcome any status-quo bias. Well, the last Opinium poll has Leave on 45%, Remain on 44% with 9% as don’t knows. Now, we should remember that polls aren’t all knowing and that one earlier today had Remain ahead. Opinium polls are conducted online, and online ones tend to be more favourable to Leave. There are still some more polls to come—and they may be better for Remain than Opinium.

Personally, I still think the Remain vote is marginally more likely than a Leave one. But I wouldn’t be surprised by any result now.