The EU referendum looks set to be held next year – it’s now a question of whether it’s in the summer or autumn. Today’s Times reports that Whitehall is preparing for a referendum next June, if EU leaders are on side with David Cameron’s proposed reforms at December’s European Council meeting. The Prime Minister is set to deliver a speech at the CBI today, where he will describe the vote as ‘the biggest we will make in our lifetimes’ and will say the decision isn’t about whether Britain can ‘survive outside’ of the EU but whether it ‘adds to our economic security or detracts from it’.
Eurosceptics think the pre-briefed portions of the speech and the floated date interesting, as both have nothing to do with the ongoing renegotiations. Rob Oxley of the Vote Leave campaign says:
‘It’s revealing that everything coming out of No.10 is about processology — the date, not the renegotiations. They don’t want to talk about the new deal because there is no substance to it.’
A spokesperson from Stronger In campaign said they are ready a vote at any time:
‘We’re ready for the vote whenever it comes. We are clear that Britain is stronger, safer and better off as part of Europe than we would be out on our own. While the Leave campaigns have yet to decide what “Out” actually looks like, let alone spell it out to voters, we’re clear that the benefits of 40 years’ membership outweigh the costs’.
Cameron is known to be keen on a quick renegotiation and a rapid referendum, while George Osborne has been slightly more cautious — undoubtedly aware of Brussels’ slow pace. But both the In and Out camps believe that a June vote is highly unlikely for a number of reasons. For next summer to be a possibility, there is a lot that has to go right for the Prime ministers Minister. Firstly, his letter of demands to EC president Donald Tusk — landing tomorrow — needs to be well-received and the upcoming council meeting needs to be favourable towards his demands.
Secondly, the EU referendum bill is still in the House of Lords and the matter of whether 16-17 year olds can vote has yet to be resolved. If the Lords succeeds in giving the government another bloody nose, redrawing the electoral register to widen the franchise would not be a quick process. Plus, the notion of a snap poll has been ruled out, meaning that a June referendum would see the campaign clash with the Scottish, Welsh, local and London Mayoral elections in May 2016. It’s therefore unsurprising that Downing Street has already denied that the referendum will be held next June.
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