Why aren’t the Lib Dems being taken more seriously?

In four weeks’ time, the Liberal Democrats will descend on Brighton for their annual conference. It’s likely to be the most enthusiastic such gathering in recent years, with the party celebrating the record 72 seats they won at last month’s election. The Lib Dems gained 61 more MPs than the paltry 11 they took in 2019, toppling four sitting cabinet ministers and winning virtually all their southern targets. It was the highest number of seats for the Liberals since H.H Asquith in 1923.

Yet such has been the focus on the new Labour government that this achievement has been somewhat underreported. ‘None of the other parties increased their MPs by a factor of six’, grumbled one newly elected member to me when the new intake assembled for a team photo in Westminster Hall. Given all the dire pronouncements about the Lib Dems’ future after the 2019 election, they reasoned, should there not be more recognition of the turnaround, five years on?

Having been restored to third party status in the Commons, the Lib Dems will make the most of their enhanced platform. Sir Ed Davey now enjoys two questions at PMQs, and used the first session of parliament to ask about social care. It’s a subject that we can expect the party to talk much about. The Lib Dems’ success entitles them to chair three select committees. These include the health and environment panels – subjects on which they campaigned heavily. More MPs means more staff too. In the last parliament, 11 MPs and a skeleton team had to cover every issue, with peers forced to provide support. As veteran Lord Wallace notes, ‘a much larger Commons party, with significantly-increased staff both in MPs’ office and attached to the Whips’ Office, will transform our capabilities.’

Recognition of the party’s success is particularly important in the context of the Conservative party’s leadership election. Lib Dem triumphs came squarely at the expense of the Tories: outside of Scotland, every seat they captured had previously been represented by a Conservative, including 21 gains in the south west and 23 in the south east. Among them are former strongholds represented by Tory premiers: Boris Johnson’s Henley, Theresa May’s Maidenhead, John Major’s St Neots and David Cameron’s Witney. Such is the Lib Dem ascendancy in leafy, affluent areas that one Tory MP suggests in the south, ‘You’re better off canvassing on a council estate.’

If the Conservatives are to win power again, it is hard to imagine a route to a majority which does not run through the traditional ‘blue wall’ areas in the south east. The 2015, 2017 and 2019 Tory victories were moreover built on temporary occupation of the Liberals’ south west heartlands. Yet turning these areas Tory again will by no means be an easy task. The Lib Dems pride themselves on being ‘cockroaches’ – and as difficult to dislodge from an area as Japanese knotweed. Having won their 72 seats as ‘local champions’, they will spend the next five years pounding the streets, opposing developments, unencumbered by the demands of national government.

There are signs too that they are not done yet with the Tories. Criticism of the Conservatives featured heavily in both new MPs’ maiden speeches and Ed Davey’s response to the State Opening of Parliament. With more than 3,000 councillors, the party has a veritable army ready for the local elections in nine months’ time. All but two of the 21 county councils are currently held by the Conservatives, with Davey’s party greedily eyeing seats in the likes of Surrey, Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire. It would be an inversion of the classic Lib Dem strategy: having won the parliamentary constituency this May, why not mop up its council wards 12 months on?

Recognising this challenge will be a priority for whomever of the six contenders is elected Tory leader. Tom Tugendhat has suggested that the party can win back both Lib Dem and Reform voters by rebuilding trust and delivering on its promises. Others point to research showing that a majority of Ed Davey’s supporters support cutting migration. One issue that certainly ought to unite all six candidates as they tour the country talking to activists is party reform. Canvassers report of ‘paleontological’ data in last month’s campaign, with some returns not having been completed for 20 years. If the Tories are to neutralise the Lib Dem fighting machine, recruiting activists and deploying them effectively really ought to be the bare minimum.