Robert Peston Robert Peston

Why Dominic Cummings’ departure may only be a ‘matter of time’

Photo by Peter Summers/Getty Images

Dominic Cummings’s role in government no longer looks sustainable, as members of the cabinet and Tory MPs turn against him – and in the words of one very senior member of the government, it is “only a matter of time” until the prime minister asks him to go.

The problem for Cummings – and the prime minister – is summed up in a Tweet by the former minister Caroline Nokes: “My inbox is rammed with very angry constituents and I do not blame them.”

Nokes is typical, according to ministers and MPs. Like all prime ministers, Boris Johnson risks deep harm to his own authority and popularity if he ignores what his party is telling him.

“What is very frustrating,” said one minister “is that Cummings is only an adviser, and yet he is being protected in a way that would never happen to a minister. Jenrick [the housing and communities secretary] almost had to resign for doing something much less serious.”

Quite how long Cummings survives in his job depends mainly, ministers think, on how many Tory MPs publicly – and privately (through the whips) – call for him to go in the course of today.

And there is a second ticking time bomb, say ministers. They fear a member of the public may file a complaint to Durham police alleging Cummings broke the Health Protection Regulations – which the police would be obliged to investigate.

This is not to presume Cummings’s guilt. He is completely clear he did not break the law. But a criminal investigation would be another embarrassment.

The decision on whether Cummings should stay or go is momentous for the PM. Cummings is the lynchpin of everything that happens in his administration, from the path to full Brexit, to the end of austerity, to the panoply of measures to combat the Covid-19 epidemic.

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