Daniel DePetris

Why Donald Trump will step up his feud with the EU this year

For Angela Merkel, the chief guardian of Europe’s centrist politics, 2018 was a year of tribulation – and she admits it. In her New Year’s speech, the German chancellor acknowledged the hardship of the last twelve months while begging her countrymen to unite in the year ahead. “We will only master the challenges of our times if we stick together and collaborate with others across borders,” Merkel told the German people in what can only viewed as a call for the country to come together. Merkel’s words, however, don’t only apply to Germany. Europe as a whole is entering 2019 with many people agnostic about the European Union, exhausted with the familiar politicians, and more curious about the continent-wide EU parliamentary elections just around the corner. If 2018 was a year of the ascendant populists, 2019 could be a year of the establishment comeback.

Or it could be more of the same. What can we expect in European politics this year? In his Spectator cover piece this week, Fredrik Erixon says that a populist surge in the May 2019 elections could change the face of the EU forever. He’s right – and here are some of the themes likely to prove decisive in the upcoming vote.

First, migration will continue to be on the minds and lips of European politicians. While the number of illegal migrants crossing the Mediterranean into the EU is exponentially lower than its 2015 peak, migration still remains at the forefront of the continent’s political debates due in large measure to the populists’ insistence that Europe is still at the mercy of uncontrolled immigration. Right and left-of-centre politicians will disregard all of this as threat mongering and cynical political gamesmanship wholly at odds with the facts. But this matters little to Matteo Salvini, Viktor Orbán, and France’s National Rally party – all of whom will talk about the dangers of migration on an endless loop until EU voters choose their next parliament in the spring.

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