You may not have caught it amidst other international developments, but the United States bombed Somalia last Friday. No, that isn’t a misprint.
On June 3, the Somali government announced that the US had conducted an airstrike against al-Shabaab militants west of the southern port city of Kismayo, killing approximately five fighters. The Pentagon has yet to release any information about the strike, a concerning (but not surprising) display of nonchalance.
The latest strike came as President Biden reversed his predecessor’s decision to withdraw all US troops from Somalia. Approximately 500 Americans will now return to train Somali counterterrorism forces and aid Mogadishu in its counterinsurgency campaign against al-Shabaab, a terrorist organisation that controls swaths of the East African country and has penetrated deep into the Somali capital. Somalia’s newly elected president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, is understandably thrilled about American special operators and trainers re-locating from next-door Kenya.
Both moves suggest the White House intends to escalate the forever war on terror. American forces stationed in Somalia will be tasked with helping Mogadishu reclaim some of the territory it lost after months of political infighting. UN counterterrorism experts assess that al-Shabaab has nearly 12,000 fighters and is al-Qaeda’s richest affiliate, netting $10 million a month from illegal taxes, extortion, and illicit charcoal sales.
Yet al-Shabaab is also an organisation often at war with itself, internally divided about goals, methods, and messaging — and like Somalia itself, the group is challenged by rivalries along lines of clan and personality. Some experts have seen evidence that al-Shabaab, while brutal in its attacks and technically associated with al-Qaeda, is predominately focused on domestic aims like overthrowing the Somali government rather than striking overseas. Foreign fighters more prone to external attacks have been marginalised from the group’s leadership after years of internal crackdowns.
Regardless of the exact composition and motivations of al-Shabaab, the Biden administration is likely to rely on the same tools as its predecessors to keep pressure on the organisation.
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