Since Keir Starmer took office, Britain’s approach to Taiwan seems to have changed little from that of the previous Tory government – but is that really the case? Beneath the surface, there are worrying signs that Starmer’s government wants to dodge discussing the potential flashpoint of Taiwan’s sovereignty, lest it disrupt their attempt to reset relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC)
The previous government, in the 2023 Integrated Review Refresh, committed the United Kingdom to supporting stability across the strait. Rishi Sunak, when asked about arms sales to the island, was unequivocal: ‘We stand ready to support Taiwan’. Starmer’s government appears to have followed suit: as per the Foreign Office statement following last month’s Chinese military drills, Keir Starmer’s government continues to maintain that cross-strait differences be settled ‘without the threat or use of force or coercion’. Under Labour, the UK and Taiwan will also, no doubt, continue to enjoy fruitful bilateral exchanges (indeed, earlier this month, the two countries began a fresh round of trade talks).
London has twice now concealed the fact that it has discussed Taiwan with Chinese leaders
However, there seems to be something strange going on. The Foreign Office has been accused of asking for a visit to the UK by former Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-Wen in October to be postponed because the Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, was about to embark on a ‘goodwill visit’ to China. Lammy, when asked directly whether any of his officials played any part in this matter, replied that he did ‘not recognise the caricature being put about on this’ – which is not a ‘no’.
Murkier still was Taiwan’s omission from the Foreign Office readout following Lammy’s trip to Beijing but its inclusion in Chinese accounts. According to Xinhua, the official mouthpiece for the Chinese Communist party, Lammy said: ‘The UK remains steadfast in honouring its commitment on the Taiwan question since the establishment of diplomatic relations and will stick to it in the long term’.
This was not the first incident of this kind. When Keir Starmer called Xi Jinping over the summer, the subsequent Downing Street press release also made no mention of Taiwan. Yet we were told, via the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, that ‘Prime Minister Starmer reassured China there is no change to the UK’s long-standing one-China policy.’
None of this gives the impression that Britain’s top statesmen are using chats with their Chinese counterparts to challenge them on China’s intensifying campaign of coercion against Taiwan (a missed opportunity to further deter Xi from taking unilateral action). Worse still, these recent interactions give the impression that the new government may be trying to gloss over its differences with China on the question of Taiwan’s status and its future. Starmer and Lammy appear to have told PRC leaders what they want to hear.
The fact is the British government disagrees with the Chinese Communist party. Beijing’s expansive ‘One China’ principle is categorical in claiming that Taiwan is part of China. London has, since the 1950s, maintained that the island’s status is undetermined. This did not change when the UK and PRC exchanged ambassadors in 1972; Britain merely acknowledged China’s claim.
During those negotiations, however, the UK side did make some verbal concessions to expedite upgrading diplomatic relations. Britain’s silence was bought when Foreign Office officials privately assured the PRC that the UK would not promote its own view that Taiwan’s status was undetermined. British officials also reluctantly agreed to pronounce to parliament the government’s view that ‘the Taiwan question is China’s internal affair to be settled by the Chinese people themselves’ (although officials felt this wording, if the sentence was taken as a whole, did not undermine the UK’s belief in Taiwan’s undetermined status).
What, if any, weasel words have Starmer or Lammy agreed to? We know that China has been pushing the Biden administration to change its language regarding Taiwan and Taiwanese independence. Surely the Foreign Secretary did not repeat the words ‘internal affair’. This was hardly true in the 1970s, but after decades of self-rule followed by democratisation and the growth of a distinct Taiwanese identity alongside this process, the idea that Taiwan is an internal Chinese issue is utter nonsense.
Or, more simply, has the government agreed to keep quiet? It is difficult to know, but the fact that London has twice now concealed the fact that it has discussed Taiwan with Chinese leaders leads one to wonder (and worry the worst).
Continued silence and opacity on Taiwan’s status will likely have long-term detrimental consequences. If a crisis were to break out across the strait, Beijing’s propaganda machines would go into overdrive to portray their aggressive actions as legal and a mere ‘internal matter’.
In fact, Beijing is already laying the groundwork through joint statements with countries across Asia and Africa which endorse their expansive ‘One China’ claim. Pakistan has pledged to oppose ‘any form of “Taiwan independence”’ while the Congo has promised to support ‘all efforts made by the Chinese government to achieve national reunification’, to highlight just two recent examples. Vladmir Putin has also got in on the disinformation game. Earlier this month, he declared ‘everyone formally acknowledges … Taiwan is part of China’ and blamed Taipei for heightened tensions.
If Beijing believes it will not face a global backlash against its aggressive actions towards Taiwan, it has even fewer reasons to show restraint. Moreover, if Beijing can win global opinion during a cross-strait crisis, efforts to keep Taiwan free, be it with a US-led military response or economic sanctions, will be undermined. In the future, if a resolution opposing a Chinese annexation or quarantine of Taiwan was brought before the United Nations General Assembly, one could easily imagine many countries opposing it or simply abstaining. The international community’s reaction would not mirror its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Clarity is not cost-free. Puncturing the ‘One China’ delusion with a clear description of reality – that Taiwan is already an independent country and that, by extension, the Chinese Communist party has no right to impose its will on the people who live there – would carry significant consequences for the UK. However, as noted, there are risks to staying silent.
On Thursday, the House of Commons will hold a debate on Taiwan’s international status. At the very least, the government should make it clear to both British parliamentarians and the world that the UK does not support China’s expansive claims and that Beijing cannot do what it wants with Taiwan. It is not, after all, China’s own internal affairs.
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