The Conservative party is preparing the ground for its sixth leader since the Brexit referendum eight years ago. Were one of those actuaries who help insurers assess probabilities let loose on the Tory leadership race, it is hard to envisage any of the six candidates being rated as a likely future prime minister. Even removing David Cameron from the list of former PMs and discounting the impending leader leaves us with four completed leadership cycles in eight years. At that rate, the person becoming leader on 2 November could be expected to last until autumn 2026.
One assumes the party will ultimately alight on a Young Lochinvar with a dash of panache
The last time the Tories lost power in a landslide – in 1997 – three party leaders in a row failed to get the keys to 10 Downing Street. One didn’t even get to the next election.
And yet a bumper crop of half a dozen hopefuls has been duly nominated for the coming battle, each apparently believing he or she is made of the right stuff to mastermind a Tory restoration.
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