As MP for the constituency which covers Newmarket, health secretary Matt Hancock will have met a few bookmakers in his time. He has even won a horse race himself, of amateur jockeys in a charity event. He will know the Conservative leadership is the sort of open race with appetising prices – not least the 10-1 which William Hill is today offering on him. I have never met Mr Hancock, and can’t say I even particularly like him, but I am sorely tempted to have a flutter.
Why? Because Conservative leadership contests, for all their drama, are pretty easy to read. The winner is almost invariably the credible candidate who, at the time of the election, has succeeded in offending the fewest number of Conservatives. Who held negative feelings towards John Major in 1990, or William Hague in 1997? Iain Duncan Smith, perhaps, had ruffled feathers by rebelling on Maastricht, yet still in 2001 he inspired fewer negative feelings than Kenneth Clarke or Michael Portillo.
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