In an otherwise jubilant night for Labour, the party has performed badly in areas with a high proportion of Muslim voters. So far, Labour has lost five seats with large Muslim populations – four to independent candidates and one to the Conservatives. The party’s vote is down on average by 11 points in seats where more than 10 per cent of the population identify as Muslim, with pro-Gaza candidates making significant inroads. Labour has been wary throughout this campaign of the impact that the Middle East crisis would have on its vote in urban areas with significant numbers of Muslim voters. It followed comments last year by the Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, in which he said Israel had the right to withhold water and power from civilians in Gaza. Starmer has also faced criticism from Muslim voters for being too slow to call for a ceasefire.
The party’s vote is down on average by 11 points in seats where more than 10 per cent of the population identify as Muslim
In one of the biggest shocks of the night, Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow Cabinet Office Minister, lost his Leicester South seat to the independent, Adam Shockat, who declared: ‘This is for Gaza’. Ashworth had a majority of more than 22,000 at the last election but lost by 979 votes. The constituency, where around a third of the electorate are Muslim, had been held by Ashworth for 13 years. In nearby Leicester East, the Conservatives benefitted from independent candidates picking up several thousand votes and splitting the Labour vote. The Tories won by 4,426 votes.
In another high-profile contest, Shabana Mahmood, the shadow justice secretary and a key ally of the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, won in Birmingham Ladywood by about 3,500 votes over the independent Akhmed Yakoob. Mahmood had a majority of more than 32,000 at the last election.
In Birmingham Perry Barr, Labour’s Khalid Mahmood lost to independent Ayoub Khan by 507 votes. And in Birmingham Hodge Hill, the former cabinet minister Liam Byrne squeaked through by just over 1,500 votes.
In Dewsbury and Batley, Heather Iqbal, a former adviser to Rachel Reeves, lost by just under 7,000 votes to Iqbal Mohamed. And in Blackburn, the constituency once held by the former cabinet minister Jack Straw, Labour’s Kate Hollern lost by under 200 votes to the independent Adnan Hussain. Both constituencies had previously healthy Labour majorities.
It wasn’t all bad news. Labour will be pleased to have won back Rochdale. George Galloway won the seat at a controversial by-election earlier this year during which Labour withdrew its support from its official candidate Azhar Ali over comments he made about Israel. Galloway’s triumph has been short-lived. Parliament will be a better place without him.
Labour will also have breathed a huge sigh of relief that Wes Streeting – one of its most senior MPs and a ubiquitous presence on the airwaves throughout this campaign – clung on in Ilford North. He won by just 528 votes. Streeting had a majority of more than 9,000 last time round. Jess Phillips, who resigned from the shadow cabinet to vote for a Gaza ceasefire in Parliament last year, also managed to hang on to her seat. She saw her majority slashed from 13,141 to just 693. Phillips faced booing and shouts as she gave her victory speech after the result. She described the campaign as ‘the worst election I have ever stood in’, claiming her activists had faced intimidation and violence. And in Bethnal Green and Bow – one of Labour’s safest seats – Rushanara Ali won by just over 1,500 votes. Muslim voters there were angered by the Labour leader’s comments in the last days of the campaign about deporting Bangladeshi people whose asylum claims had been rejected. Ali was defending a majority of more than 31,000. She has won but there can be no doubting the scale of local discontent with Labour.
Labour strategists had expected most Muslim voters who deserted them over the Gaza issue during the local elections in May to return to the fold at the general election. This hasn’t quite turned out to be the case. Muslim campaigners, who have long argued that the party can no longer take the votes of their community for granted, will chalk up last night’s results as a significant victory. Expect to see further pressure piled on the incoming Labour government over its policy towards Israel and the broader Middle East. That will include demands for the recognition of an independent Palestinian state as well as calls for an embargo on arms sales to Israel. All eyes will be on how Starmer responds.
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