Neill Lochery

Why Portugal’s troubled history of political crises will continue

Portugal's prime minister Antonio Costa (Getty images)

Portugal has once again been plunged into a political crisis: the country is facing a snap election after its socialist-led government failed to pass its budget in the National Assembly yesterday. António Costa, who has led the country’s minority government since November 2015, was brought down by the refusal of the PCP (communist party) and the Bloco de Esquerda (left block) to back his budget. 

This latest upheaval comes at a particularly bad time for Portugal, which is attempting to return to normality following 18 months of Covid lockdowns and closures. Now, the country is once again in political limbo: an election is likely to take some months to carry out, and what happens to the billions of pounds in aid from the European Union remains unclear.

The current crisis is a result of political and economic failings. Yet while Costa is the most recent fall guy, is this budget debacle really his fault? The crux of the matter is that the country’s economy has suffered so many shocks that it makes the management of it almost impossible for either the centre-left or centre-right without introducing major structural changes. Such reforms would lead, in the short term, to a spike in social costs and a decline in popular support; unsurprisingly, none of the country’s political leaders are willing to take the risk.

Portuguese who had lost their jobs because of the 2010 crisis reinvented themselves as drivers of tuk-tuks and local accommodation hosts

Ultimately, Portugal’s troubles stem from the collapse of its empire, which historically supported the country’s economy. During Portugal’s golden age, the country got rich on exploiting the natural resources of Brazil and its African colonies. But it has struggled to find a suitable replacement since that source of income dried up following the 25 April revolution in 1974.

In the years since that left-wing led upheaval, Portugal has repeatedly found itself in deep economic trouble.

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Written by
Neill Lochery
Neill Lochery is professor of Middle Eastern and Mediterranean Studies at University College London. He is the author of Out of the Shadows: Portugal from Revolution to the Present Day

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