At a recent closed-door session in Ukraine’s parliament, Kyrylo Budanov, the country’s spy chief, was asked how much longer Ukraine could hold on. His answer reportedly stunned the room: ‘If there are no serious negotiations by summer, very dangerous processes could begin, threatening Ukraine’s very existence.’ Ukraine’s military intelligence rushed to deny the statement, but his warning rings true. Vladimir Putin has every reason to believe he can still break Ukraine into submission later in the year, and plans to stall any peace settlement in the upcoming talks with Donald Trump.
Russian troops are advancing faster than they did in 2022. Last year, they captured more than 1,600 square miles in the Donetsk region, including four towns – Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar and Kurakhove. This month, 20 Ukrainian settlements have fallen, with Russian forces now just three miles from entering the Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukraine’s defence continues to crumble amid a critical infantry shortage and chaotic coordination between units. Some 250,000 Ukrainian soldiers are facing almost twice as many Russians on the front line, and the gap is widening. Talks of Trump’s potential peace deal have further eroded morale, triggering a fresh wave of desertions both on the frontline and at training centres, as soldiers do not want to die just before a ceasefire is reached. More than six million men have not updated their military data to avoid conscription.
The mood in Ukraine is changing. There are hardly any Ukrainians who have not lost a friend or relative in the war, and the longer the fighting drags on, the more they are willing to concede just to make it stop. According to the latest poll, half of Ukrainians now support a compromise to end the war – but only if it comes with significant security guarantees. Two years ago, more than 90 per cent wanted to fight until Ukraine’s victory. For Volodymyr Zelensky, the time to make a good deal is slipping away: even if Russia’s casualties have surpassed 700,000 soldiers in three years of full-scale war, Putin has enough men to outlast every last Ukrainian.
Putin does not want to enter talks with Zelensky while Ukraine is able to dictate its own terms, and while its army still holds a chunk of Russia’s Kursk region. The Kremlin insists that Ukraine must be disarmed and neutral, with no Nato troops on the ground and no army to fight back if Russia attacks again. Moscow’s demands go further than annexing the 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory it has already captured; Putin wants to expand Russia’s influence in Europe, demanding Nato to withdraw its military from the bloc’s eastern borders. Nikolai Patrushev, Putin’s aide, has recently suggested that Ukraine and Moldova could cease to exist this year as a result of Putin’s talks with Trump.
But Trump is no fool. He is unlikely to support a peace settlement that hands victory to the Kremlin and reminds Americans of Joe Biden’s humiliating retreat from Afghanistan. Trump’s administration has emphasised that both sides must give up something for the war to end. He has substantial leverage against Putin, given that Russia’s economy is hitting the limits of what it can produce. Defence spending is at Cold War levels – 6.3 per cent of GDP – and consumes a third of the country’s budget. Inflation is approaching 10 per cent, food prices are soaring, labour shortages are higher than ever, interest rates are at 21 per cent, and export revenues have fallen by a third to their lowest level since 2020. If Trump succeeds in bringing down the cost of oil, it could force Putin to compromise. The question is how long it will take for the sanctions to work or for Trump to drill enough oil to leave Russia with no buyers. The 100-day deadline Trump set to finish the war may not be enough.
A call between Trump and Putin will happen in the coming weeks, if not days. Washington has already informed Ukraine of this and plans for a full-fledged meeting with Putin soon. Kyiv hopes to align with Trump on a negotiation strategy beforehand – Ukrainian officials may have contact with the Trump administration early next month during Washington’s ‘Ukraine Week’. However, there is little reason to believe that a ceasefire will be achieved anytime soon. Putin will enter the talks confident of his imminent victory, no matter how long it takes.
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