After a few weeks of banging on about Europe, Downing Street hopes that there will be more of a domestic focus in Westminster for a little while at least. The Budget is approaching, and George Osborne is already coming to terms with what he can and can’t do.
It turns out that now is not the time to be politically radical, as Tory MPs are already in a rather bad mood about Europe, and trying to change the subject won’t really make enough of a difference. So the Chancellor has already had to retreat on reforms he was considering to pension tax relief after it was made clear to him that Conservative MPs would not weather it. Given the government’s majority is only going to get weaker as time goes on, the chances are that Osborne won’t be able to attempt anything more radical before the next election – and by that time his mind will be elsewhere.
There are also threats to the Tory plans to further relax Sunday trading laws, with 23 Conservatives already signed up to block the proposals.
All of this contributes to the sense that Osborne is not having the easiest time at the moment. The support that he has built up for his leadership bid is still visible, with a number of ambitious ministers – including some in Cabinet – fearing that a wrong move during the EU referendum campaign could jeopardise their careers. But in the wider party, there are many more MPs who confess to feeling sceptical about the Chancellor’s ability to lead the party and attract more voters. They accept that this is less of a problem when Labour is led by Jeremy Corbyn, but worry that Osborne doesn’t quite have the emotional intelligence to capitalise on this.
This might not be the worst position to be in at the moment. Osborne’s biggest problem so far has been his status as the frontrunner in the contest when that contest is so far away. But he currently has lost ground to make up – and that’s why he needs to be very careful in the Budget, even if it is a welcome distraction from Europe.
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