Sirens blare across Israel, from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. They have been triggered by a barrage of missiles, launched from Yemen, purportedly by Ansar Allah, also known as the Houthis. The Israel Defence Forces claim to have intercepted two missiles launched from Yemen, while Israeli emergency services say that at this time, there have been no injuries reported.
This threat is only a new one in the most technical of senses. Israel already lives within the range and under the constant threat of missile attack – from Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank, from Iran itself and from Iranian proxies in Iraq (and formerly Syria, before the fall of the Assad regime). Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programmes are extremely capable and have absorbed a lot of military spending over the past decade. Iranian deliveries of missiles and drones to its regional proxies have been consistent. Those proxies, including Shia militias inside Iraq, regularly carry out barely deniable attacks on Iran’s regional foes. American bases inside Iraq are frequently hit by militia groups acting under Iranian supervision.
Those attacks have extended to Israel since the wider regional war began in October 2023. In October 2024, a significant – but ultimately more demonstrative than dangerous – Iranian barrage of over 200 missiles and drones flew at Israel from all directions, only to be intercepted by a coalition of international air forces and navies.
The depth of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal is legendary, even if it has been diminished militarily by a series of Israeli strikes that have killed many of its commanders and destroyed stockpiles across Lebanon. For years, Iran’s regional strategy has been best described as trying to build a Hezbollah in every country its influence touches.
The Houthis, with or without their Iranian sponsors, have long had the capacity to strike distant targets – more or less accurately. On September 14, 2019, drones and missiles struck several parts of the Saudi oil economy. The Houthis claimed responsibility. Investigators largely decided that the launches were done by Iranian operatives, likely operating in southern Iran. The Houthis have since become capable of doing this themselves.
Periodically ever since, missile and drone strikes from Yemen have peppered Saudi oil facilities in the desert and in Jeddah, as well as occasionally triggering air defences around Riyadh, the capital. Missiles and drones of Yemeni origin – operated by Houthis or by Iranians – have also menaced the United Arab Emirates, although they have not caused much damage.
The Houthi capacity to build missiles and drones domestically was already growing before October 7, 2023. It has increased quite precipitously since then. It’s not all that difficult, if you have a large and growing programme of those weapons, to send missiles and drones a hundred or so miles further than their usual targets. Especially if you are doing it less to do damage than to make a point. This attack, if it is not repeated, will be more a demonstration of defiance than a new front in a war which is already region-wide.
For one and a half years, the Houthis have fired missiles and launched drones at ships crossing the Red Sea. A few targets have been hit, some very badly damaged, but the point of the drone and missile campaign is to deny the seas to the Houthis’ opponents. You do not need to sink hundreds of ships to make cargo ships take an alternative route. And you do not have to sink many ships to keep the American navy busy.
In theory, the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea is about Israel. In reality though, it’s piracy done at the behest of Iran, which wishes to set the whole region ablaze. But it demonstrates something else: the survival of what Iranian strategists call the Axis of Resistance.
In much the same way, two missiles from Yemen cannot trouble Israel all that much. It has layers of air defences designed to take on all kinds of threats of a similar type. But it is still a threat. It tires out operators and puts defence systems through more cycles. It consumes interceptor rockets, which aren’t free – even when they come from America, Israel’s forever-patron.
Days ago, the United States hit Houthi targets in an operation which is now more famous for the group-chat that coordinated it than its desired effects and its outcomes. Today’s missile attack is in defiance of the American barrage, which was intended to cripple Houthi missile-production, kill important figures in the Houthi missile and drone chain, and diminish its ability to launch munitions.
It’s a gesture to show that though the Houthis have taken a few hits, they’re still up and fighting. For Israel, there’s not much harm done. But for America, this is intended to be proof that once again in the region, they’ve underestimated the endurance of their enemy.
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