It has been quite a 14 years for the Liberal Democrats – from the coalition in 2010 to near total wipe-out in 2015. Things barely improved in the two elections after that. They even managed to lose then-leader Jo Swinson’s seat in 2019. Five years on, the party has secured 71 seats, a gain of 63 and the party’s highest ever total. They haven’t quite managed to become the official opposition but return to the new parliament as the third-largest party.
The Lib Dems have benefited from ruthless targeting
One of their gains includes David Cameron’s old seat of Witney on a swing of over 15 per cent. They also took the Henley constituency (now Henley and Thame), once occupied by Boris Johnson, as well as Theresa May’s former constituency of Maidenhead. Elsewhere, they scored a 25 per cent swing to gain Harpenden and Berkhamsted, and took Tunbridge Wells off the Conservatives too. Mike Martin won there by nearly 10.000 votes and becomes the first Liberal MP for the area since 1906.
Arguably, the Lib Dems’ only failure of the night was being unable to dislodge Jeremy Hunt in Godalming and Ash. There are plenty of Lib Dem councillors around the outgoing Chancellor’s constituency, one of whom was his opponent in this election, but he just managed to hold on as MP.
Despite all this, I suspect that there has not been a great resurgence in liberalism. Some of the success is simply down to tactical voting. In a number of seats, the Lib Dems were the only viable opponents to a Conservative party that vast swathes of the country has had enough of.
However, that should not detract from the scale of the achievement. This has been a fantastic set of results for a party that for a long time was bordering not just on irrelevance, but oblivion.
The mood from the Lib Dem camp is, unsurprisingly, jubilant, with leader Ed Davey calling the results ‘exceptional’. No wonder he was seen entering a watch party dancing to ‘Sweet Caroline’. Labour might be trying to restrain themselves in public, but Davey and co. have no such worries.
The party leader undoubtedly deserves huge credit. More than just steadying the ship has carved out political space for his troops, focussing on specific issues such as sewage dumping and support for carers. The Lib Dems are no longer banging on about rejoining the EU. Telling his own personal story of caring for his mother and now his son has clearly resonated too, alongside all those stunts.
It is also worth noting that Davey skilfully avoided being asked about his involvement in the Post Office scandal during the campaign. It turns out than when you’re on a paddleboard or a rollercoaster, nobody really wants to get into the details of failed IT systems and missed meetings. It all meant his campaign passed smoothly and people built up a positive perception of him and his party.
Mostly, though, the Lib Dems have benefited from ruthless targeting. They were determined not to get overexcited and repeat the mistakes of the past when the spread resources too thinly.
The results leave them with an intriguing dilemma. The party has not seen a major jump in its share of the vote at this election yet has seen a huge increase in its number of seats. Indeed, it looks like Reform are going to end up with a greater vote share but nowhere near the amount of representation in parliament.
The Lib Dems have always been passionate advocates for electoral reform. We all remember the great success of the Alternative Vote referendum… But having just cashed-in on our current system, are they really going to use their increased presence in parliament to push to change it, especially when Reform might also benefit?
Another issue to ponder is how do the Lib Dems respond to a Labour government? Opposing the Tories comes naturally to many in the party, but continuing to have political room to manoeuvre when there is a Labour government is trickier. They cannot drift too far to the left given that they have taken many Tory marginals. As I suggested the other day, there is now the political opportunity for them to claim the classical liberal centre ground, but they need to be bold enough to do it.
Finally, how do you manage having all these new MPs? While I’m sure there will be plenty of talent on the Lib Dem benches, there will not be much experience. Many of those new MPs will also need to focus on holding onto their own seats, making it harder for them and the party to make an impact on the national scale.
These are all interesting questions, but ones the Lib Dems can navigate another day, when the newly-elected have caught up on sleep and their hangovers have subsided.
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