William Cash

Why the Midlands will matter on June 8th

It is no coincidence that Theresa May chose to hit the campaign trail in Wolverhampton and Dudley last weekend; both are areas where Ukip did especially well in 2015. What is emerging is that the West Midlands – particularly the Labour-held Midlands marginals – will be the key battleground in this coming election. From the creation of the Mercian kingdom by Alfred the Great, to the Battle of Bosworth and Germany’s bombing of Coventry in 1940 – not to mention the 2015 election which led to Brexit – the Midlands has provided the backdrop against which the future of our country has been shaped. The election on 8 June will be no exception.

Several polls now put the Conservatives on target to win between 45 and 50 per cent of the national vote, while Labour looks likely to lose at least two seats in Birmingham and as many as seven in the West Midlands. For Labour, it could be a political bloodbath; for Tory candidates in the Midlands, it’s the best opportunity they’ve had to sweep up seats since Thatcher’s 1987 landslide, when she won 42 per cent of the popular vote.

If the polls are correct, Labour would lose Birmingham Edgbaston, and Birmingham Northfield. But the Tories could also take Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Coventry South and Coventry North West, Dudley North, Wolverhampton South West and Wolverhampton North East.  

Other vulnerable Labour seats include Stoke South and South Central, as well as Walsall North, where sitting Labour MP David Winnick is aged a mere 83. That’s if the Tories can defuse an ugly row that has broken out in the local constituency association over which candidate to adopt. According to the Express & Star, Conservative Campaign Headquarters is controlling the shortlist, which has upset some local members. In many ways, the party is right to do this; it needs to be ruthless in selecting the best candidates.

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