Looking ahead to the next election, I’d expect the Tories to actually have the better of the campaign and increase their vote share during it. First, there’s Smithson’s rule that the Tories do better the more David Cameron is in the news; the Tories will structure their election campaign so that Cameron is front and centre. Second, I can’t imagine that Brown will hold up well under the scrutiny of the campaign. The account of his testy confrontation with journalists on the plane to Washington makes one wonder what would happen if voters were to give Brown a piece of their mind on the trail. Equally, Brown has yet to find an empathetic language that shows he understands what people are going through with the recession. Then there is the fact that losing campaigns are always plagued by leaks which reveal the divisions inside the campaign and highlight the mistakes that are made. On a more substantive note, the issue set should also favour the Tories.