Why the Tory poll lead is likely to grow during the general election campaign

Conventional wisdom has it that the governing party recovers in the polls during an election campaign. The theory is that the incumbent party both gests to choose when the election is and benefits from the polls moving from being a referendum on the government to a choice between the parties. But—as Anthony Wells, Mike Smithson and Daniel Finkelstein argue—there is no evidence to support the idea that there is an automatic pendulum effect. So, those arguing that Labour’s poll numbers are definitely understating what the party will get in the general election are wrong.

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Gareth Roberts

Stormzy isn’t cool

Looking ahead to the next election, I’d expect the Tories to actually have the better of the campaign and increase their vote share during it.