The publication by the Treasury of its forecasts of the economic impact of Theresa May’s Brexit deal, versus no-deal and staying in the EU, has been keenly awaited.
But it turns out that what we will read, probably on Wednesday, will be almost irrelevant.
Because what the Treasury has modelled is not the deal actually struck on Sunday by Theresa May, but her Chequers plan.
And, as you will be keenly aware, the rest of the EU has rejected her Chequers combination of the UK staying in the single market for goods and the dual-tariff customs territory the Facilitated Customs Arrangement.
In other words, we will be asked by the Treasury to compare two scenarios that the PM herself admits could yet happen – ie no Brexit and no-deal Brexit – with one scenario, Chequers, that cannot possibly happen.
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