Next Thursday, the voters of Batley and Spen will go to their polling stations ostensibly to pick their next MP — but at the same time, could decide the ultimate fate of Keir Starmer. If Labour lose the by-election, his leadership will face a whole new level of trouble. Yet despite the importance of this contest, there is another one that is about to properly kick-off that is even more key to Labour’s future — the race to become the next general secretary of Unite.
The current general secretary of the largest trade union in Great Britain, Len McCluskey, is rightfully infamous. During his reign, he has tried to pull Labour to the left using his influence as the head of what has been the party’s largest donor — and succeeded to an extent that would have seemed impossible when he took over in 2011. Whoever fills his shoes will have be equally influential over the Labour party and its direction over the next decade.
Only in the strange world of trade unionism would Coyne be considered in any sense right-wing
The three candidates for the job are Gerald Coyne, Sharon Graham and Steve Turner. There was a fourth — Howard Beckett — until he dropped out of the race a few days ago. Coyne, who came dangerously close to beating McCluskey in 2017, is considered the candidate of the right, although only in the strange world of trade unionism would Coyne be considered in any sense right-wing. Basically, he wants the union to focus on things like their members working conditions, pay and benefits, as opposed to socialism in one country.
All of the other candidates are safely of the left. In fact, Beckett was arguably the most left-wing of the bunch before he departed, but Graham and Turner could safely be described as being on the left of the movement as well. There was a worry that Coyne was going to walk the contest given the left vote was going to be split three ways (the contest is held under first past the post). Yet with Beckett stepping aside, the vote is once more highly unpredictable.
While Batley and Spen is extremely important and losing the seat would be dire for Labour, if you look at the next ten years of British politics the Unite general secretary contest is even more important — both to the party and the country. Having someone running Unite who isn’t looking to overthrow capitalism and instead simply working to get members a better deal would mean a major shift for Labour. Unite the Union has tremendous influence on the party, both officially and unofficially. They have seats on the NEC, for example, which has a large hand in deciding who gets to become party candidates as well as disciplinary rules, in other words, who gets to be a Labour member or not.
A Coyne win would represent a real fightback by the Labour movement to become relevant again; if Graham or Turner emerge victorious, the mire the party is stuck in looks set to continue.
And that mire can be explained best by the fact that there are three factions of the Labour party at present, all of them at war with each other. There are the continuity Corbynites who think that a hard left positioning for the party would help Labour win under new leadership; there are those who think Labour can get a majority at the next election if only it hits the right centrist sweet spot; and there are those who feel that Labour should be centrist but that the party can no longer win a majority on its own. This final group thinks Labour needs to work with the Lib Dems and Greens in order to oust the Tories. There is no plausible compromise between these three groups as their aims are mutually exclusive.
Only the middle option – Labour alone as a centrist force, without any deals with other parties — offers a tenable future for the Labour party as an electoral force. And while Coyne seems only to want to run the union and get out of the Labour leadership’s path — so long as Unite gets what it wants along the way, obviously — the fact that the largest donor wouldn’t be pulling from the left anymore would be a very big help to the moderate wing of the Labour party.
The new general secretary of Unite will be announced on 26 August. Look out for the result — this shouldn’t just be one for political nerds but for anyone who cares about the next decade of British politics. Whatever happens to Starmer or Batley and Spen, the Labour party will have to find some way to become a real party again instead of a bunch of warring tribes under a wilting red rose. Coyne taking over from McCluskey would be a great first step in that journey; anyone else could watch from Unite’s head office as the Labour party’s ability to be a party of government finally dies.
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