Has Donald Trump sparked off a trade war? His plans for a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and 10 percent tariff on aluminum have shocked friend and foe alike. China is outraged; so are Canada, Japan, and South Korea—allies that in fact export more steel to the U.S. than China does. They stand to be hurt worst if they aren’t granted exemptions or cut special deals by the president. Trump accuses the Chinese of ‘dumping’ steel into the American market, while the legal grounds for his new tariffs rest in the idea that strategically critical manufacturing is endangered by a diminished U.S. metals industry. But if the tariffs inflict the brunt of the misery for the region’s steel producers on China’s rivals—Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan as well—the result might only be to strengthen the People’s Republic. A more productive American steel industry will come at the cost of weaker allies in East Asia.
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