Why ‘Ukraine carnage’ in the markets won’t last

Oil will shoot up to $130 a barrel. The prices of natural gas will double in a few hours, tipping a few more energy companies into bankruptcy. The tech stocks will crash, currency traders will panic, and the bond markets will crater. If Russian tanks do start to roll across the Ukrainian border this week then we can expect carnage in the financial markets. Indeed, they have already fallen sharply in anticipation of a possible war. And yet, the important point is surely this: it won’t last.

True, the most serious armed conflict on European soil since the end of world war two is a serious matter. But geopolitical events rarely make much difference to the markets for more than a few days. We have plenty of evidence to tell us that, after a few days, the impact quickly fades.