Turnout in the Labour leadership contest is going to be one of the key factors in deciding who wins. The result of the London Mayoral contest suggests that the tens of thousands who’ve joined the party as members or registered supporters have, as expected, flocked in an anti-establishment direction — which has clearly benefited Sadiq Khan and points towards a Corbyn victory.
Rumours are circulating that the turnout in the leadership is varying significantly between the various parts of the electorate. Coffee House understands that the leadership campaigns are expecting the turnout among trade union affiliates to be low, possibly close to 30 per cent, while the turnout among the membership is expected to be high — around 80 per cent for members and 90 per cent for registered supporters. The Sun’s Steve Hawkes has said he understands the selectorate to be around 340,000:
Sources claim there are likely to be around 340,000 votes cast in Labour leadership election – low turnout among union members
— Steve Hawkes (@steve_hawkes) September 10, 2015
Figuring out what this means is tricky, given that this is the first time Labour has run a contest under these rules. But given Khan’s nine-point victory over Tessa Jowell in the mayoral race, a Corbyn victory is looking even more inevitable today. Although the potential low turnout from the trade unions could hurt Corbyn, a big ‘Jez we can!’ from registered supporters would counteract that.
Whoever is announced as the winner tomorrow, Labour HQ has plenty of questions to answer about how the contest has been run. The party has struggled with to cope with the huge number of new members/affiliates who have joined the party to vote in this contest. Just 24 hours before the nominations closed, Labour had to close its telephone helpline, most likely due to overwhelming demand. Twitter is flooded with stories of ballot papers not turning up and members being unable to vote. If Corbyn doesn’t win, his fans in particular will be very unhappy and point towards the #LabourPurge that supposedly removed Corbynites from the party.
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