Today Downing Street achieves its immediate post-election aim: Theresa May makes it to the summer recess. As I say in the pol col this week, Number 10 have long hoped that the summer break will give the government a much-needed chance to regroup and that conditions will be easier when parliament resumes in the autumn.
Is this hope realistic, though? A summer holiday can do lots of things but it can’t magic up another 20 Tory MPs or put time on the Brexit clock. Those Tories placing their faith in the atmosphere being calmer when parliament returns are forgetting how soon after that the party conference season begins—and that it will make the Westminster summer party circuit look like a mindfulness festival.
Without extreme care, Tory conference could easily spin out of control. It could turn into a disorganised, beauty parade of leadership contenders. Indeed, the best way to stop this might be for May to make clear beforehand that she’ll go once the Brexit deal is done. This would shift the burden of proof on to those who want her to go earlier. It would also make the whole leadership question easier to handle without undercutting her authority any more than the general election result already has.
Where the real cheer for the Tories might come from, though, is Labour conference. If it becomes clear there that the Corbynites won’t stop until they have deselected their internal opponents, then Labour’s fragile, post-election unity might crack. This would relieve some of the pressure on the government and make it that much easier for Mrs May to make it to the end of the Brexit talks.
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