Will Brexiteers miss their best chance?

Theresa May was only ever going to win approval for her Brexit deal by persuading MPs that it was the least worst option. Remain-supporting MPs, she hoped, would come to believe that her deal was the only way of preventing no deal. At the same time, she hoped that Tories worried about ‘no Brexit’ would see her agreement as the best way of ensuring that Britain actually left the EU. But with the Commons vote on May’s Brexit deal just days away, both parts of this strategy are in trouble. Little wonder that the Chief Whip sounded downbeat about the prospects of winning next Tuesday’s vote at cabinet this week.

A cabinet revolt has forced May to promise that if her deal is rejected, MPs can have a vote on whether to proceed with no deal or not. This means that those who dislike her withdrawal agreement because it involves leaving the EU or because it doesn’t point to a close enough relationship can vote against it but be confident that they can defeat no deal the next day.

Despite this, Brexiteers seem remarkably unconcerned about her deal being voted down next week, which compounds May’s problem. Many of them have convinced themselves that they’ll eventually get the Brexit they want, come what may.

Some believe that MPs will not manage to agree on anything — and May will end up supporting a no-deal Brexit when the vote comes on Wednesday. But this makes some heroic assumptions. If the government can’t successfully whip for its own deal, then why should it have more success doing so for no deal? It is also hard to imagine those cabinet ministers who went into open revolt to get a vote on the extension then backing no deal.