So would an economic recovery give Labour a slim chance of winning the next election? That’s the question mooted by the Guardian this morning, as their ICM poll discovers that some people planning to vote Tory or Lib Dem would consider switching to Labour if there are “clear signs of a recovery” by May 2010. That’s 9 percent of current Tory “voters” and 22 percent of Lib Dem “voters”, to be precise.
To my mind, there are two major impediments to a significant Recovery Boost for Labour. The first is, simply, that there may not be a recovery. After all, leaked IMF figures yesterday have downgraded UK growth for this year (putting it at -3.8 percent), and have the economy shrinking by a further 0.2 percent in 2010.
But let’s put that aside, and imagine that there is a recovery by May next year; or at least enough signs of one that the Government can start spinning about “green shoots”* and how “Gordon got us through the worst of it”.
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