On the day Theresa May takes control at No.10 in a comparatively seemly transition, the Labour party is in the midst of the biggest crisis in its history. Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot paper in what looks set to be a messy and fractious leadership contest. He also looks likely to win: in September, he picked up 59 per cent of the votes and, amongst the party’s membership, little seems to have changed to knock that support. A quick glance at Corbyn’s Facebook page reveals a lot about the huge base of support the Labour leader can count on. A not-wildly-exciting video uploaded last night in which Corbyn sits at a desk in his grey jacket proclaiming the NEC decision has already been watched hundreds of thousands of times. The messages of adulation, too, speak for themselves: ‘Excellent. A triumph for democracy’, says one. The band UB40 even posted to send their ‘big love’ to Corbyn.
If we had a repeat of last year’s contest, it seems Corbyn would triumph. But there is still hope for those who want to oust Corbyn. The rules this time around will be slightly different because, as Corbyn’s supporters were busy celebrating the Labour leader’s automatic inclusion on the ballot paper, the NEC voted that a vote will now cost £25, up from £3. This is almost certain to limit the impact of the backlash of social media and will act as a small boon to the likes of Angela Eagle and Owen Smith, who are running against Corbyn. For many who support Corbyn on social media, £3 is loose change which translates their Facebook ‘Like’ into an actual vote in the leadership election. This time, though, £25 is likely to bring a halt to the number of new member Corbynistas who sign up at the last minute to back their man. A decision by the NEC to stop those who have been members for less than six months will also mean that those who have signed up in recent weeks to have their say (and likely back Corbyn) won’t be allowed to take part.
But although this is good news for those who want to see the back of Corbyn, all is far from rosy. The decision by Owen Smith to run in the leadership contest is likely to take votes away from Angela Eagle. Whilst Owen Smith not having voted for air strikes in Syria (or backed Iraq), could make him a slightly more effective opponent against the Labour leader, division amongst who should stand against Corbyn only helps the incumbent. Margaret Hodge admitted as much on Today just now when she called for hustings in the Parliamentary Labour Party to establish a ‘unity’ candidate before the leadership contest went to the members for a vote.
Whatever happens, we’ll know on Thursday what the timetable is for this Labour leadership race. But whoever wins, one thing seems guaranteed: things do not look good for the Labour party.
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