The timetable for the EU referendum has yet to be announced but campaigners are already preparing for a vote next year. In a piece for POLITICO Europe today, I look at the various folks who will be campaigning for a Brexit and how they intend to win. While Matthew Elliott and Dominic Cummings are laying the foundations for a professional campaign based on a moderate message about jobs and economic security, Ukip has other ideas about how to win.
The kippers are going to be a significant voice in the referendum but Nigel Farage has said he won’t be seeking to lead the Leave campaign. Instead, he appears to be content doing his own thing. The party believes that the top issue is going to be borders and immigration and it needs to be tackled head on. Therefore, Farage has kicked off his own ‘Say No — Believe in Britain’ tour to drum up support for a Brexit around the country.
Why is Ukip hitting the stump so soon? I understand that Nigel Farage believes he has a good idea of what Cameron will bring back in his new deal and has concluded that this deal is going require an early rebuttal. It will involve, the Ukip leader believes, some opt-outs on the Working Time Directive, relief on benefits for migrants and associate membership status for the United Kingdom. The latter would be the most important achievement: it could signal the beginning of a two-tier Europe — something Conservatives have long hankered after— or it could simply be a new name for the current arrangements Britain has. Farage believes it is the latter and predicts Cameron will sell it as a significant victory.
Although the new associate member status will not include an opt-out from the notion of ‘ever closer union’, Farage believes it would include a protocol to allow a debate on that clause for associate members in future treaty negotiations. This new membership status also has the potential to scramble the referendum question, as the Remain and Leave campaigns may end up with different interpretations of what it means and how much practical difference it will make.
There is a danger for moderate Eurosceptics too that the Leave campaign could end up being judged by two controversial figures. Farage is already known to be a loathed and loved figure but so is Jeremy Corbyn, whose Eurosceptic position has shifted lately. After uncertainty about whether he is leaning leaving the EU, the new Labour leader penned an op-ed for the FT arguing ‘Labour is clear that we should remain in the EU’ but warned that he will let not let the government water down workers’ right. Although he appears to be backing remaining in at any cost, many in Labour still believe Corbyn in his heart would would prefer to campaign for a Brexit — especially if the trade unions favour leaving after changes to workers’ right.
If Corbyn does change stance to support leaving (which would trigger a series of high-profile Shadow Cabinet resignations), the referendum could look like a re-run of what happened in 1975, when the Out campaign was fronted by Tony Benn and Enoch Powell. Even if voters were sceptical of Europe, these fringe figures promoting a Brexit were enough to turn them away. Leave campaigners this time will keen not to repeat this mistake and ensure they can project a reasonable and optimistic vision about Britain’s future outside of Europe.
The Spectator is hosting an evening discussion ‘Is the EU bad for business?’ at 7pm on Tuesday 20 October at The Royal College of Surgeons, WC2. Speakers include: Dominic Cummings, director of the ‘No’ campaign and Will Straw, executive director of the ‘Yes to Europe’ campaign and is chaired by Andrew Neil. For tickets and further information, click here.
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