I find it hard to be cynical about Davis’ actions today. Rather than being a “publicity stunt”, I suspect they may demonstrate that rarest of things – a politician acting on principle. But, whatever you think on that front, there’s a separate question: what will Davis achieve? I’m not sure it will be all that much. Some thoughts on why:
1) The 42-day legislation hasn’t been passed yet. If anything, the smart money’s on it not getting through the Lords (and possibly then entering a period of wrangling, courtesy of the Parliament Act). In that case, Davis will be running a by-election campaign largely against a policy which isn’t in place. That’s hardly the thing to bring about a land-shift in public opinion.
2) Do the public care about 42-day detention? As James has said before, the public are largely in support of 42-day detention, whilst also appreciating that it’s not the be-all-and-end-all of counter-terrorism in this country. Of course, Davis would say that the point of his actions is to convince people that they’re wrong; that 42-day detention is an insidious but significant development. But will the nation listen in on a by-election campaign? Will people care about this more than soaring fuel, food and mortgage costs? I doubt it.
3) If anything, his actions may give Labour a boost. Given the above points, it’s doubtful whether many people will read anything into the story other than “Tory MP resigns after 42-day detention disappointment”. That’s bad news for the Tories. It’s a cloud over Project Cameron, particularly if there’s any truth to the Cameron-Davis row rumours. Little wonder, then, that Labour figures are so ecstatic. Three Line Whip puts it nicely: “Gordon Brown is on the floor – and David Davis has just helped him to his feet.”
4) After re-election, Davis will be in a worse position to do anything about any legislation. The early word is that Davis won’t be walking back into his old job if re-elected; Dominic Grieve is very much a permanent replacement. So how does he hope to influence Tory policy from the back benches? Again, he’ll be hoping that he creates such a large public consensus that a Tory Government would be forced to repeal any 42-day legislation, if passed. But, failing that – which ties into points 1) and 2) above – it’s difficult to see what else he can do. I doubt, for instance, that Cameron will allow Davis or his views into the inner circle again.
Before I finish, a little more on Grieve. For Cameron, the opportunity to effectively sack Davis from his role as shadow home secretary may be the silver lining on this particular cloud. The buzz has always been that Cameron and Davis don’t see eye-to-eye. On the other hand, Grieve fits more easily into Team Cameron – more centrist, more media-friendly etc. etc – even despite his views on grammar schools. That may not be a good thing to some CoffeeHousers. But, make no mistake, Grieve’s consistently been one of the Tories’ top-performers recently. And I think his tag-team partnership with the shadow justice secretary, Nick Herbert – who, again, is said to have had run-ins with Davis – could be something to relish.
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